Stock Market Commentary: Status Quo at Friday's lows

Bulls will take comfort there wasn't another major step down after two days of heavy losses; bears will see the lack of a technical recovery a vindication of recent losses. Probabilities favor further gains as part of a larger downleg. The Nasdaq finished below its 50-day MA on light volume. For the Dow, technicals are all net bearish as Monday's minor recovery did little to offset three days of losses. Shorts will perhaps look only as far as the 50-day MA for potential opportunities. The Nasdaq 100 shifted net bearish on its technicals, but the rising channel hasn't broken - yet. S&P has moved decisively to the bear side as technicals crash far enough to be almost oversold. However, there is a new rising channel which may lend support at this point. While today saw little change there is enough support to suggest a larger bounce can evolve from Monday's action. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for , offers a range of stock trading strategies

Weekly Review of Publishers' Charts

Trendline breaks galore. While this is likely to see weakness extend into this week, it's more likely to see the establishment of a broad trading range for 2010. But what had the Stockcharters to say about it? Anthony Caldaro of Objectiveelliotwave has confirmed the 'B' top of the 'ABC' correction kicked off in March 2009. Will 'A' = 'C'? If so, 2010 will be a bad year... Although he has a 'bullish count' for the NASDAQ - if not very convincing looking (e.g. don't see why the Oct-Nov correction is not wave 4 with the current high a wave 5 top?) Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview has the short terms primed for a bounce (with only one 'bear' signal) as the intermediate time frame has a mix of everything, but mostly neutral. Will the market consolidation area play as support? I suspect it won't halt the decline as much as lingering support c1040; but today will be a test of it. On the 60-min time frame technicals are way oversold f


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Weekly Market Commentary: Crack...

Break of rising support for the S&P dating back to March 2009 but volume was not excessive given the significance of the break. A MACD trigger 'sell' accompanied S&P's weakness. The Nasdaq also lost long term support but volume was light. A MACD trigger 'sell' accompanied its support line break Resistance in the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks Above the 50-day MA played to form as the breadth indicator lost 17 points last week; the week finished with 51% of Nasdaq stocks trading above their 50-day MA where a couple of weeks ago the figure was closer to 75%. The loss was greater in the S&P where a 40 point drop in the Percentage of S&P stocks Trading above their 50-day MA brought this figure to only 40%. Time for the sideways market to begin? Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for , offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest ric

Stock Market Commentary: Bears Tighten The Screw

Did bulls blink? After a series of big one-day swings which resulted in no real change, today saw the first crack with decisive breaks of 20-day MAs. Volume soared as profit taking gave way to significant distribution selling. But, there is support to look too with the Nasdaq closing on rising channel support. The Dow took it a step further with both breaks of 20-day MA and rising channel support; a snap back rally like in October is its best hope. The S&P finished at its 50-day MA with December breakout support holding. While the Russell 2000 lost its first level of support but didn't drop far enough to test the more important level at 625. Weakness in market breadth continued with a MACD 'sell' in the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA - the first signal since the 'buy' in early November. Relative strength has also shifted towards bears with small caps underperforming the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 - although large caps remain the laggards. Friday wil

Stock Market Commentary: Wobbles at the 20-day MA

It was a another roller coaster day with a shift back in favour of bears, although stepping back a little shows today's action was little more than trading range behavior for many of the markets. For the Nasdaq there was a higher volume distribution day - the fourth distribution day since the last accumulation day. Intraday action saw a drop below the 20-day MA, but the day finished with a close just shy of its 20-day MA. Technicals are slipping more towards the bear side, but there has been no confirmed break of trend. The Dow also closed on its 20-day MA but it came with a weak MACD trigger 'sell' The Russell 2000 held breakout support While the S&P had a stronger MACD trigger 'sell' signal as it toyed with its 20-day MA. Tomorrow is likely to see continued tests of 20-day MAs; further losses will set up trading range breaks which will convert former trading ranges into levels of overhead supply on future rallies. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician

Stock Market Commentary: Bulls Push Higher

Big points gain but no real volume in the first day back after the long weekend. The Nasdaq 100 created a Parabolic SAR buy signal as the index bounced once more off the 20-day MA. The Russell 2000 pulled back Friday's losses but a MACD trigger 'sell' keeps bears in the game, although the index managed a new closing high. The other point of note was the developing top in the Percentage of Nasdaq stocks above the 50-day MA; technicals weakening fast. The trading ranges established since the last week of 2009 remain in play; 20-day MAs remain good support. All bulls need is a little more upside volume, bears need much more. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for , offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard ; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance. Zignals offers a fu


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