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Weekly Stock Commentary: Room to fall

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With the indices falling off a cliff suggesting a bottom is an impossible task. Taking measured move targets as a guide put the S&P down at 500, the Nasdaq at 400 and the Nasdaq 100 at 300. Although the S&P target does not sound unreasonable, the tech targets sound extreme - especially given their relative strong performance. A proportion decline as the measured target gives a little more reasonable outcome; the S&P lands at around 500, but the Nasdaq comes in at 900 (and the Nasdaq 100 at 675). Whether these levels are reached will depend on the current mood, but given the market was prepared to give the jobs data a chance before Apple spoiled the party suggests an end (but not 'the end') is close to hand. Breadth indicators point towards further declines, technicals of the Bullish Percents and Summation Indices have plenty of downside room Prepare for a counter-rally, but it's unlikely to last anything longer than a few days. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market

Gold breakout: Optimists....

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With the jobs data looking gold traders have taken a glass half empty approach and pushed prices out of a short term downward channel. The advance is just short of a Fibonacci retracement level but it a new channel is developing; the question is whether it's up or sideways? How will oil respond? 50-day MA looks critical with a big void to the 200-day MA. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

Stock Market Commentary: Tech breaks November lows

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Well, at least nobody can feel left out now that the Nasdaq has broken through November reaction lows. I think for the Nasdaq best foot forward is to look for MACD support at the bullish divergence line. But the Nasdaq 100 remains the strongest index; still room to November lows Large caps you can only look through the gaps in your fingers Ugly! Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

Intermarket Analysis: Bottom forming?

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Based on John Murphy's order on the world; the order of a bottom is yields-stocks-commodities. It would appear reasonable to assume a bottom is in place for treasury yields as of December 2008. It usually takes another year for a bottom in the stock market. Painful as the current decline is the suggestion is that whatever low is put in place over the next few weeks won't be the absolute low. However, it may mark a retest low for a rally-and-decline for 2009 (fitting an earlier suggestion of mine for a possible sideways market in 2009). Commodities generally take another 9 months from the stock market bottom; so it could be mid-to-late 2010 before a true bottom is in place for commodities. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

Stock Market Commentary: Weak Rally But Semiconductors Firm

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After a series of losses today's rally was not all too surprising. Good to see volume climb to register an accumulation day but the bears weren't going to let bulls have it all their way with a late selling flourish. Technicals are a long way from recovering, so little to cling on to here. The Nasdaq did at least hold support, but it's hard to see it holding in the face of small and large cap weakness. However it was helped by a strong support bounce in semiconductors; note the bullish divergence in CCI and stochastics. If semiconductors can hang on then this strength will eventually filter to the other indices. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

Market Sentiment: Breadth rout

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The bullish divergences which were developing for the S&P have taken a slap across the face and now look set to align at a slower pace. Unfortunately, the NYSE Summation Indec is caught in neutral territory, some distance off the lows of November 2008. It by no means has to fall to those levels, but a break below -1,000 feels like a minimum requirement. There is a little more strength in Nasdaq breadth and it will be interesting to see if it can pick up some support. Again, the Summation Index favours further downside but there is a definite bullish divergence between large cap and tech stocks. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

Stock Market Commentary: Low Volume Indecision

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Nothing immediate in any of the indices to suggest the tight intraday action represents something of a bottom. The tight action does allow for a swing trade with a stop on the flip side but it's hard to shake the feeling there isn't more downside in the tank - particuarly from tech which has performed remarkably well (considering). Volatility ( VIX ) has started to move again, but will it make it back to test November highs? It's a tall ask but the mood is turning more fearful. Hedging towards another down day with tech likely to suffer most. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

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