With the long weekend keeping markets closed for Monday what updates had the Stockchart.com public listers made over the weekend? Yong Pan has a bullish series of breadth indicators, but still a mixed set of indicators for the S&P. Getting there - but still too early for a bottom? He is looking for a morning star from the open (given the European market action for Monday we should see a gap up) Weakness in breadth indicators apparent on his SPY chart: Incredible to see years of gains disappear in less than half of month: I like the idea of the gap acting as resistance, also close to where the market pushed that huge volume relief bounce which is now supply. Maurice Walker had a good opener: The S&P's 500 Unholy Fall Of 666 Points And followed: The Fear Factor The market fell prey to panic this week as the volatility index (VIX) (page 1) reached a record high of 76. The VIX is the gage of fear, and it is telling us that the masses are in panic mode right now. Uncertain ab

Makes one long for the early summer doldrums. No doubt cyclical bear markets within secular bear markets fall hard and fast - but the lack of respite has been something of a surprise, particularly in the Russell 2000 which had (initially) weathered the Financial meltdown relatively well. I have altered Fib retracements to account for the new low. I like July lows as the upper range of any bounce, but given Thursday's weak close I suspect there will new low made today which will mean new Fib values. The only real area of support to look for now is the 2002/2003 congestion, where the S&P trades now. The degree of loss on the monthly chart is incredible and were not even half-way through the month. The S&P shed 34% during October 1987, this year it has 'only' lost 22%; a comparable loss would take it to 770 - but in 1987 the S&P had collapsed from its highs, in the current market the S&P was already down 26% before it went on its October bender. In total the

With global economies and their currencies on the retreat now is the time for the recovery of the much maligned dollar. The relationship between gold prices and the dollar have reached extremes, but with inflation less of an issue in a slowing economy we should see some rotation out of gold and into the dollar. If true then the bear trap and bounce in gold will stumble on its next test of $1,000 and rollover as part of a cyclical bear market, while the dollar mounts a challenge of 2006 highs as part of its cyclical bull market. The relationship between the S&P and the dollar is not so smooth. While the sharp advance in the S&P:dollar ratio has set this indicator on its way towards a bottom, it is well off the ratio which marked the 2002 bottom. Although I favour a decent Santa rally this year my expectation for a tough 2009 would look to be borne out by this relationship; perhaps we are in for a repeat of the 2001/02 collapse. Part of me thinks the nature of this year's cap

Another chair slam for the markets, particularly for the Russell 2000 which had been a model of strength as recently as mid-September. No question - stochastics are oversold now after earlier declines had kept them out of danger territory. The snapback zone is Fibonacci retracements, but based on my earlier thoughts I suspect we are not done to the downside, so these figures may be revised over this week and next. Volume was disappointing given the scale of losses and if there was a modicum of comfort it came from the transports which held Monday's lows as support. There is a stronger broadening wedge pattern at play, but much of its potential is based on it's support holding - something which similar patterns in the other indices have failed to do. I suspect Transports will be one of the leading sectors out of this slump given oil prices look cooked (along with inflation - for now) and transports are a traditional leading sector following a recession. There were some incredi

Yesterday I had looked at the relationship between the S&P and its key moving averages . But how will this relationship be effected by the current technical and breadth picture. The S&P Bullish Percents have reached extreme lows. Only 8% of S&P stocks are on point-n-figure buy signals, this far exceeds the 16% lows following September 11th, and the 15% of the Asian Currency Crisis. In both the aforementioned cases these lows marked the week the S&P bottomed. However, in each case technicals - stochastics in particular - were oversold. This is not the case now: So it may take a second week (and new lows in the Bullish Percents?) to firm the bottom, running in line with my thoughts from yesterday. The Summation Index is another indicator suggesting a bottom may not be in place. Thankfully it is in oversold territory, but historically it has room to fall before reaching record lows. However, the VIX is at new extreme highs - so we may instead be looking at the development

My latest Zignals post is up. The summary of the analysis was as follows: We are likely a couple of weeks from a bottom, but it is not impossible for this to take longer During this period the market will see sharp losses, perhaps trimming 10-20% off where the markets lie now (Monday will be the start) The subsequent rally will be short lived and will morph into a retest of the low The retest will be the time to buy heavy A significant bull market has a good chance of emerging from the quagmire - remember markets lead economic news. Get the Fallond Newsletter Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

After a 'quiet' 2 weeks of market action it's time to catch up to what the Stockchart.com posters have to say on the market. One must note this is weekend commentary and precludes comments from the morning slump in the futures market . Yong Pan tops the list; his breadth indicator watch is solid bullish, but the S&P shows more bearish than bullish/neutral signals. An argument is made for the September bottom - but the market keeps on defying the bottom calls: The VIX:VXN relationship is in strong bullish territory, but other breadth indicators are back in negative territory: Interesting 3-day sell climax. How will that pan out for Monday? NYSE Percentage of Stocks above 200-day MA at extreme lows: Maurice was speechless (literally - no weekend commentary)! His QQQQ chart looks to need further technical improvement before a bottom is in: Interesting up channel in the VIX 60-min chart: A bottom for oil? But long term trend for oil gone: Joe Reed summarises the week in