Happy Indepedence day to all my American readers. The latest subscriber to contribute to the KIVA fund is T. Middleton . If you would like to contribute and receive my newsletter please subscribe through the Paypal link above. Allow 24 hours to set up access and have your name added to the distribution list. The latest loan goes to Rustam Shamsiev Rustam Shamsiev lives in Asht, Tajikistan, and works alongside his fellow villages as a keeper of livestock. He has cows and bulls, and also trades milk, and has been working in this field for five years. Rustam also occasionally works in the collective farms, and has developed carpentry skills which supplement his income. He is now applying for a loan of $825 for six months to open a trading station. Get the Fallond Newsletter Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

Given the surge we have seen in selling volume this past week one could assume the Big Money / Elephants have exited the stage before the upcoming long weekend, leaving the little retailers to scramble to the life boats. I am using the Dow as an example as (ironically) it has been the leading index and should be the first to bottom. Throughout April and May any significant volume spike was associated with a distribution day right up to the first test of the 200-day MA. The second test of the 200-day MA saw a more concerted effort at selling; generating the Chaikin Money Flow 'sell' trigger. Since then there has been more active dumping of stock by the Big Money - especially into this week. Low volume selling from this point is likely to be retailers reacting to the steady march in oil prices. Unfortunately, oil has exhibited little of the form common in exhaustion runs; so a spike high in oil (and a corresponding spike low in the markets) doesn't look to be on the cards yet

One for the watch lists as it approaches $64.72 resistance (get an email, iGoogle, SMS alert for this stock when it hits $64.72 - or $64.82; the breakout price). Baxter International ( BAX ) previously featured to fallond newsletter subscribers for April 1st and June 16th. The stock has exhibited good behavior with rising volume on rising prices Bull trend strength has picked up steadily since the April-June consolidation triangle broke to the upside. The MACD trigger line is rising above the bullish zero line on overbought stochastics. If the stock can maintain this form it will mark a new all-time weekly high for the stock. June 30th registered a double top breakout on the point-n-figure chaft with a price target of $80.00 (although mine is slightly lower ). On the options front; long term holders can look to the Jan 2010 $50 strike at $17.70 from the Ask, with the Feb 2009 $65 strike at $4.80 also interesting. Get the Fallond Newsletter Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician,

The S&P is trading very nicely at support of January-March lows to the extent we will probably look back and say what a great buying opportunity it proved to be. If it doesn't play out as such at least it is relatively easy to define the risk involved (a break of the 2-day lows is reason enough to jump ship): The Dow is there to spoil the party given it sliced through similar support and is leading the other averages lower: One other avenue of support is the relationship between the S&P and the Euro. The index priced in Euros is once again trading at support from January (much as the dollar-priced index), but also lows of 2003 when the cyclical bull market kicked off in the U.S. If it wasn't for the global slump the relationship would suggest excellent value for foreign investors in U.S. markets (and a chance to build a bottom). As it stands it is more a 'wait-and-see' indicator which suggests a bottom, but this bottom may not come to a fruition as it had in the

A torid week for bulls (unless your Spanish!). What did the Stockcharters see in it all? Maurice Walker has his weekend summary up on his public Stockchart list. He notes the decline in PCE inflation for the year. I would disagree with his analysis we are not in a bear market; this is a secular bear market which kicked off in 2000, with a cyclical bear market from Oct 07 based on action of breadth indicators. As a sidenote, Ireland is in offical recession with the latest GDP at -1.5%; given the strong business relationship with the U.S. it may have some relevance (or it may not - but given Intel, Dell etc have their European bases in Ireland it's not good news). But here is his opinion because it's (always) worth reading: Sorry for posting so late in the weekend but I was feeling ill, and no, not because of the market. We have done very nicely in our short positions taken on May 20, along with the swing trades made back and forth along the way. This week we found out that inf

My latest post on S&P Moving Average Behaviour is available on Zignals . Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

A swathe of bad news and oil price hikes sent any 'will-I-won't-I' buyers scurrying to the hills, taking a few bag holders with them. The Fed bounce which was so nicely teed up was stomped into the ground. The pressure of higher oil prices will influence action today, but I would be surprised if markets don't close around yesterday's lows with some volatilty thrown in during the day. Futures are flat , so there is no immediate downside pressure from the current oil price. The question for bulls is if they can regain all of yesterday's losses, will that effort exhaust them to the extent prices drift lower to new lows? The concern (as I see it) was another poor response from the volatilty index. Volatilty doesn't have to spike higher to mark a bottom, but yesterday was the kind of day where a spike would have at least suggested a bottom was in place. The Dow chucked a gut as money flow rushed out because of GM. But it should be oversold enough to see a p