Thursday, July 03, 2008

Big Money out - only retailers left to dump

Given the surge we have seen in selling volume this past week one could assume the Big Money / Elephants have exited the stage before the upcoming long weekend, leaving the little retailers to scramble to the life boats.

I am using the Dow as an example as (ironically) it has been the leading index and should be the first to bottom.

Throughout April and May any significant volume spike was associated with a distribution day right up to the first test of the 200-day MA. The second test of the 200-day MA saw a more concerted effort at selling; generating the Chaikin Money Flow 'sell' trigger. Since then there has been more active dumping of stock by the Big Money - especially into this week.

Low volume selling from this point is likely to be retailers reacting to the steady march in oil prices. Unfortunately, oil has exhibited little of the form common in exhaustion runs; so a spike high in oil (and a corresponding spike low in the markets) doesn't look to be on the cards yet.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website