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Semiconductors At Resistance But Ready to Break

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There wasn't a whole lot to work with Tuesday. The only index showing potential was the Semiconductor Index; it managed to clear congestion from the last four days as it tagged resistance. While the resistance tag may be viewed as a shorting opportunity the move looks like one to drive a break of the triangle.

Markets Rally In My Absence; Dow and S&P Opportunity.

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Before my vacation I had noted three indices to watch  undergoing support tests: Semiconductors, Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Average had all presented buying opportunities. However, I had also thought these rallies would stall out when they got back to resistance - this did not prove to be the case.  With the exception of the Semiconductor Index (which did rally), all indices managed to post new highs for the summer. The Semiconductor Index is the one which may present a profit taking opportunity (or a potential shorting chance) as it approaches triangle resistance.  Given both the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 are at new multi-year highs and technicals for the Semiconductor Index are net bullish - and this rally begun from a 'bear trap' - chances are this will continue beyond 1,410 and go to challenge 1,440 and likely more.

Vacation until September 1st

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On holidays until September 1st. How will the market be when I return? If you haven’t already  Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is a blogger who trades for education on eToro and can be copied for free. Investments are held in a pension fund as buy-and-hold. .

Semiconductors at Triangle Support; Dow Jones tags 50-day MA

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Sellers returned today as bulls and bears tussle for control. With the constant back-and-forth, the short-term moves become more difficult to define, making it necessary to take a step back and look at the big picture. The Semiconductor Index is at one such juncture. The index finished the day at rising support defined by the April and July swing lows. Wednesday's spike low illustrates underlying demand - offering a buying opportunity; stops on a loss of 1,321. The initial target is 1,420 but a larger breakout could deliver a lot more. The only negative on the day was the net bearish turn in technicals as intermediate-term stochastics [39,1] crossed below the mid-line into bearish territory.  However, a rally to triangle resistance would likely reverse this.

Small Caps Recover Strongly as Nasdaq Breakout Stabilizes

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Buyers made a strong defense of the Russell 2000 as yesterday's losses were reversed - and then some. However, there is still some 2-3 days worth of buying required before it can be said to be challenging new highs. Weak shorts will have covered today but more staunch shorts will be feeling nervous; a move above 1,710 is a cover of any short.

Sellers Don't Relent

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Markets tilted in favour of bears although there was no expansion on the selling action from Friday. The S&P undercut the 20-day MA but volume was down a little on Fridays. However, the selling did come with a fresh 'sell' trigger in On-Balance-Volume and relative performance against Small Caps is teetering towards a new 'sell' trigger.

Large Caps Ease Away From Resistance

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Sellers closed the week out but it was Large Caps which experienced the most significant loss on the day. The S&P gapped away from the channel resistance tag reversal. The index was left at its 20-day MA as it appears to be shaping another move to channel support. This was supported by a MACD trigger 'sell', a 'sell' trigger in -DI/+DI and higher volume distribution. 

Semiconductors Continue to Approach Resistance

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There wasn't a whole lot to today's action except for further gains in the Semiconductor Index. Relative performance is positive and technicals are all in the green.

Indices Offer Shorting Opportunities

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The rallies of last week continued with low volume gains. For those looking for new trade opportunities, there are potential near-term shorting trades available - or a chance to take profits for existing long trades. The S&P tagged channel resistance despite net bullish technicals. The gains were small but resistance has been tagged in what could mark a reversal play.

Thursday's Gains Consolidate

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Large Caps continued to press Thursday's advantage with gains to send indices towards recent swing highs. The S&P remains on course to reach channel resistance and post new highs with technicals net bullish and relative performance in the ascendancy against Small Caps.

Frustrating Market; Large Caps Strongest

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Just when it looks like Shorts have a handle on this market bulls go and Make America Great Again.  Market rallies undo much of the weakness over the last three days and give bulls something to play with. Although bulls are not yet out of the woods. The Semiconductor Index was my bearish choice for today and the index logged a 1% gain. While it didn't reverse all of its 'bull trap' it did push markets away from its 200-day MA; action since last June has been scrappy but it has managed to edge a little higher each day. I would still edge in favor of shorts but another day like today would end this and set up a challenge of triangle resistance.

Indices Struggle To Recover Monday's Losses

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While today ended as a day for bulls to take satisfaction, there is still plenty of work to do to get indices back to the multi-year highs which were challenged last week. The losses endured on Friday and Monday were enough to drive technical breaks, but not all of these were undone by today's buying. The S&P managed to retain its breakout as buyers looked to defend its 50-day MA. Volume climbed to register an accumulation day as supporting technicals remained in the green.

Semiconductors Index Breakout but Dow at Channel Resistance as Small Caps Breakdown

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Lots of divergences in play across the markets. Start with the positives, the Semiconductor Index edged above resistance in what looks like breakout. It lost ground Friday which suggests it may still require a redrawing of resistance if this is some form of rising channel. However, in the near term, this looks like a genuine breakout and look for a move to triangle resistance.

Markets Diverge; Small Caps Lag as Large Caps Make the Running

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After weeks of relatively tight trading markets stretched their legs today. The S&P took advantage of yesterday's gap to squeeze shorts on higher volume accumulation. Today's gain hasn't quite tagged channel resistance but did register as accumulation. Technicals are all bullish along with an acceleration in relative performance over Small Caps. Large Caps to lead into the Fall?

Bulls Take The Day's Honors

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While bulls shrugged off the latest Trump missive there was no reversal in markets to change their prior directions with one exception. The Semiconductor Index is still clinging on to 1,380 resistance but today's close posted a bullish hammer with a spike low at the 50-day MA. Expectations for tomorrow would be a rally break of the latter resistance and a push to triangle resistance.

No Change; Breakouts Hold for Large Caps and Techs - Small Caps Struggle

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Friday didn't bring a change in markets as the S&P, Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 held their breakouts while the S&P struggled to negate its double top. The S&P lost a little ground but remains well above breakout support. The biggest loss was seen in relative performance but only because the index has suffered an extended period of relative decline and had only begun to reverse that.

Small Caps Enjoy Best of Action

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There wasn't a whole lot going on today except Small Caps were able to attract some buyers despite finishing below resistance; bulls have been taking advantage of the 20-day MA test. Today's action coincided with 'buy' signals in the MACD and +DI/-DI.

S&P Firms Breakout As Tech Keep The Pressure On

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Given overnight news and Netflix disappointment I was surprised to see markets finish as strong as they did given comments on the economy by the Fed Chairman. The S&P opened at support and 'engulfed' the prior day's trading; it's not a true bullish engulfing pattern as this is a reversal pattern and what we have is a breakout but it does contribute to a confirmation of the breakout.

Week Finishes in Tech and Large Caps Favour

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Large Caps and Tech indices enjoyed a good week with breakouts holding by Friday's close. There was no real volume on the breakouts but new highs leave markets in a position to attract sideline money. The S&P didn't do a whole lot on Friday but it remains on course to test channel resistance. Technicals are all in the green and the previous period of underperformance against the Russell 2000 looks to have shifted back in Large Caps favour.

Tech Indices Ignore Semiconductor Weakness to Breakout

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Tech Indices are not waiting on the Semiconductor Index aa both the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 closed at new all-time highs. The Nasdaq 100 had the best response with a clear breakout. This move accelerated the relative advance against the Russell 2000 setting things up nicely for a challenge of upper channel resistance.

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