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Upcoming "Death Cross" for Russell 2000 ($IWM)

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There was some modest buying today from the open, but volume was light and markets are below trading range support established during the latter part of 2024. It's hard to see where the buyers are going to come from given the chaos of Trump. I should add, I listened to Josh Brown's The Compound podcast and he showed an interesting chart of market returns in April-May in the year following a strong return in markets; in essence, selling to pay capital gains tax. Given the precarious nature of markets, and the possibility for this seasonal factor to play out, it's likely we have a couple more months of downward action before value buyers return. If we look at individual markets, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is looking like the first to signal a long term shift in favor of bears with an upcoming "Death Cross" between the 50-day MA and 200-day MA - perhaps completing before the end of the week. Technicals are net bearish and the volume trend has collapsed since the st...
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The Nasdaq Redraws Ascending Triangle As Bitcoin Slumps

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There was more wild fanfare today than any real damage to indices despite Microsoft's earnings hit, and Apple's earnings to follow. We will start with the Nasdaq. I have redrawn the breakout as an adjusted 'bullish ascending triangle' rather than a 'bull trap'. A loss of ascending triangle support would bring in to play a future test of the 200-day MA, which I think the index needs, but is not guaranteed. Technicals have seen a 'sell' trigger in +DI/-DI, but other technicals are holding up well. It could get ugly if Apple dissapoints; if that happens, then the 22.2K level is the immediate concern. I'm not sure what to make of the S&P. It's a bit of a mixed bag, I have redrawn it as a skittish bullish ascending triangle, but it may just be a broader rising channel. The 50-day MA is looking like it will be key support on the next test. A loss will open up for a test of the 200-day MA. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) successfully test...
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S&P Challenges Bull Trap As Nasdaq Breaks Out

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Today it was the turn of the S&P and Nasdaq to make their moves as the Russell 2000 ($IWM) takes a rest after its breakout. The Nasdaq had the best of the action as it cleared ascending triangle resistance (although, not all-time high resistance). Technicals are net positive with a new MACD trigger 'buy' the latest bullish trigger. Volume was a little light, but price action is key.
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Bearish Evening Star for Russell 2000 as S&P 'Bull Trap' Holds

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The Russell 2000 ($IWM) fulfilled its 'bearish evening star' reversal with a gap down at the open followed by a solid red candlestick. However, despite this loss, there is still plenty of room to run to support and technicals have barely shifted from their overbought state. The Russell 2000 registered a distribution day in the process, which gives bears a strong chance of registering another win on Monday.
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Markets Rally But "Bull Traps" Hold For S&P and Bitcoin

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Markets were able to stage a recovery after Tuesday's losses, but the recovery - while newsworthy - didn't do enough to make back all of those losses, and critically, there is still a key "bull trap" in the S&P. Technicals are still mixed for this index, with momentum (stochastics) failing to return to an overbought condition, a condition required to sustain a rally.
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"Bull Traps" For S&P, Nasdaq and Bitcoin

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So, in one fell swoop, the S&P and Nasdaq undid all of the work of 2026 with nasty gaps lower. In the case of the Nasdaq, the ascending triangle breakout reversed into a breakdown with new 'sell' triggers in the MACD, On-Balance-Volume and +DI/-DI. The relative performance of the index to the Russell 2000 ($IWM) showed an acceleration lower after last year's declines. Only stochastics (momentum) is holding on. If one was to be more honest of what's happening, we are likely broadening out to a trading range and it will take a loss of 22K to really flag a concern for bulls. Things are a little more problematic for the S&P. There is a definite 'bull trap' in play following today's significant gap down. Volume rose in confirmed distribution, so this wasn't some fake out to get weak hands out of their positions. As with the Nasdaq, the twin lows of October/November at 6,550 carries greater significance, and we are still a long way from a test...
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Bitcoin Buy

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There wasn't a whole lot of change to Thursday's action and so the focus should probably be Bitcoin. The daily time frame is showing a low key move back to breakout support on bullish technicals (on-balance-volume is in the process of making a recovery after a couple of month of decline) and remains the best buying opportunity of the assets I cover. The weekly Bitcoin chart is a little different in that the week finished with a nice uptick on higher volume accumulation, but technicals are net bearish. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) has a small, double spike high, but the spikes aren't large enough to suggest a tweezer top, but watch for any early weakness. There wasn't much coming from the S&P or Nasdaq aside from protecting their earlier breakouts. In terms of extension relative to 200-day MAs, we have the Russell 2000 at 17.2%, the S&P at 9.2% and the Nasdaq at 11.2% above the moving average; only the Russell 2000 is approaching the 95% zone...
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Russell 2000 ($IWM), Equal Weight S&P, and Semiconductor Index Extend Rally

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Indices kept the good times rolling with the Russell 2000 ($IWM), equal weighted S&P and Semiconductor Index all pushing to new all-time highs. Since clearing the last line of resistance these indices have barely paused. The Russell 2000 is doing most of the heavy lifting, outperforming peer indices as Small Caps take over from the tech heavy hitters.
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