The Russell 2000 ($IWM) had done well to reverse its first big red candlestick in months on a solid day of "value" buying, but struggled to build on it. Now, with bad news sweeping the regional banking sector - leading to another sizable red (selling) candlestick on confirmed distribution - it's hard to see buyers coming in for a second bite. In percentage terms, markets are trading above summer levels, so there isn't too much downside to take what you can now (across all asset classes), and wait it out (until the next dip below 200-day MAs).

A real mixed bag for markets. All indices were hit hard by Friday's Trump Tariff Special, but Small Caps ($IWM) are the only one trying to make a come back. Volume rose in confirmed accumulation, but it was below the volume of Friday. Technicals are mixed, but there was a surge in the relative performance of the index over its peers.

It has been a while since we have seen the kind of one day selling markets experienced on Friday, again driven by Trump's idiosyncrancies. Where he might gain a win in Gaza, he undos with rumors of tariffs, with a government shutdown running in the background that offers little in the way of an exit given his penchant for layoffs of Federal workers. One day of selling doesn't kill a rally, but it has put a big dent in the confidence of the rally. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) sliced through its 20-day MA and is on course to test its 50-day MA and rising trendline support. A break of this line would be more terminal for the current bullish run, and open up for a test of the 200-day MA. I would expect some form of bounce on this test, the question will be, how much. Technically, we have a 'sell' in the ADX, along with the earlier MACD 'sell'.

For current post, see previous post. The only asset to make a sizable move was Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) as it lost near 2% to fall deeper back into its trading range. While it's in a trading range it's in no-mans land, which means gains and losses don't carry much significance until trading range support and resistance is breached.

Rallies remain intact, but there is potential for some follow further follow through lower today. It would take quite a bit of selling to even suggest something bigger was in the works, so for now, track action at 20-day and/or 50-day MAs, before looking at challenges at breakout support. The Russell 2000 (I$WM) flagged a 1% loss, but it still hasn't made its way back to its 20-day MA. There is a MACD 'sell' in play, but the relative performance of this index has shifted sideways from summer into fall, so no real shift one way or the other in Small Caps favor.

It was looking good for indices to close the week at new all time highs, but sellers had a sting in their tail and markets are looking a little vulnerable to some follow through selling lower. What traders need to watch for is a gap down tomorrow. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) registered an accumulation day as On-Balance-Volume pushed itself to a new high, but the gravestone doji is not something you want to see in an overbought market state. Technically, there is still a MACD trigger 'sell' to overcome, although it's a weak signal because it occurred above the zero line.

After closing the breakdown gap, indices have retained pressure on the gap and refused to swing lower, as would be typical in such tests. So while we haven't seen much net change over the past few days, expectations would be for the next move to be higher. Backing that has been an uptick in buying volume. For the Russell 2000 ($IWM), we have a return to an On-Balance-Volume 'buy' signal ,although the MACD trigger is stuck on a 'sell'. Other indicators are positive and the index is holding 20-day MA support.