Not a whole lot of positivity to today, eventhough support held. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) showed this best with the undercut of the 200-day MA, then a (double) failed attempt to recover the 200-day MA, but the support level from the 'bear trap' still holds. Technicals are net bearish and there have been two distribution days over the past four days. I can't see 'bear trap' support holding for much longer here.

The S&P had started to clear resistance, posting new all-time highs before sellers struck with avengence. The selling was bad, similar to that seen in December, which markets had only started to recover from. Volume climbed to register as distribution, confirming market control by sellers. For the glass half-full set, markets are now back inside prior trading ranges. For the glass half-empty, this is selling that markets will find it hard to recover from. I'll start with the Russell 2000 ($IWM). This index has been under pressure since November, and was struggling at its 50-day MA before sellers turned the screw. It's now challenging the January 'bear trap', which is likely no more, but has also lost its 200-day MA. This index is looking like the guide index for 2025.

Today the S&P ticked all the boxes as it closed above the 'bull trap' in a fresh breakout that came with a higher volume accumulation. It was a solid statement of intent for bulls.

It was subtle but significant; the Nasdaq was able to go beyond the breakdown gap and make a push towards all-time highs, closing above 20,000 in the process. Technicals are net positive. This was the best of Friday's action heading into the long weekend.

The S&P has finally managed to close inside the prior 'bull trap', and in the process, has returned technicals to a net bullish state. There have been false dawns in the past, will this time be different? If we see a bearish reversal from here.

A mixed bag of action for indices - some finished slightly up, some slightly down - all on low volume. It wasn't really a day to get excited about anything. An index I haven't mentioned in a while is the Semiconductor Index. All key moving averages have converged once again after a period when it looked like the 20-day MA was about to do a runner. The index itself is struggling to get above these averages, but this is range bound between 4,400 and 5,450, and will remain so until one of these levels are breached. Because of its relative position to the averages, you could call this a 'glass half full' and edge bearish on the outlook.

We are two-for-two for the S&P pushing beyond 6,100 resistance - this week was nearly an exact repeat of last week - just as things looked ready to push on, sellers returned. Supporting technicals are net bullish, which leaves just price to do its thing. What happens at converged 20-day/50-day MAs will be important, because there can only be one winner here.