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Markets Look To Fill Gaps As Uneasy Calm Descends

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After Monday's AI sell-off sent tech stocks reeling, we had some comeback as buyers filled the void, only for traders to take some quick profits off yesterday's bounce. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) posted its third indecisive doji in a row as it lingers near its 50-day MA and $226 support, but there was also a bearish reversal off mid-level stochastics combined with a distribution day. The index is positioned for a bounce and has held up better than the S&P and Nasdaq, so it's more likely to attract the next round of buying, and tomorrow would be as good as any.

Dow Industrial Average Surges As Semiconductors Plunge

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Ugly day driven by tech declines has stalled broader rallies, but not killed them. The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to act oblivious and went against what I thought might have been straight forward reversal off resistance. Whether DeepSeek proves to be a catalyst for a larger decline won't be clear until support breaks across impacted indices. The good news is the Dow Jones posted a solid day and is on its way to challenge 45.1K highs. Volume climbed to register as accumulation. Technicals are solidly net positive.

Russell 2000 ($IWM) Remains Poised To Clear 50-day MA On Quiet Friday

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After Thursday's big wins for markets it was going to be hard for Friday to deliver a follow through. Instead we got some pullback, but nothing to suggest double tops are a risk. For next week, I will be looking for the Russell 2000 to push through its 50-day MA, which I suspect it will do on a decent 'white' candlestick and will offer a good day trade opportunity.

Decision Time Breaks In Bulls Favor For Russell 2000 ($IWM)

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So the Trump Bump continues to play out in favor of bulls. Tuesday delivered a clear breakout of the downward channel with only the 50-day MA left to play as resistance. From a technical perspective, there is only stochastics [39,1] left to cross the bullish threshold. Although, the index has switched to underperformance relative to the Nasdaq.

Russell 2000 ($IWM) Tags Resistance As S&P Breakouts

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Friday was a bit of a mixed bag. It was good to see the S&P breakout, but it also coincided with a Russell 2000 ($IWM) that closed on a 'black' candelstick at downward channel resistance. In the case of the S&P, Friday finished with an accumulation day to go with a MACD trigger 'buy' and stochstic [39,1] bull cross over, following on from the earlier On-Balance-Volume 'buy' signal. The chief point of weakness is the doji marking the breakout. This is a neutral candlestick and represents indecision - leaving doubt as to the validity of the breakout.

Markets Stall At 20-Day MAs

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After yesterday's big gains it was always going to be hard for markets to continue in the same vein. All markets are near 20-day MAs, with the Russell 2000 ($IWM) just above this key moving average and the S&P and Nasdaq just below. Volume was down on yesterday, so no distribution or accumulation to record. The Russell 2000 is trading just below channel resistance, but has seen new 'buy' triggers in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume. Yesterday's breakout gap leaves a big void to such prices into. Remember, a true breakout gap can't close.

Markets Shifting Net Bearish In Technical Strength

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There were early signs of recovery for some markets, but now all lead markets are showing net bearish technicals. If you are a trading bull looking for silver linings, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) successfully tested its 200-day MA yesterday and left with a 'bear trap' today. There was a 'bull' cross in On-Balance-Volume and in relative performance against the Nasdaq. But I wouldn't be buying the porsche on this. The 20-day MA as resistance for the Santa Rally and could prove to be resistance again by the end of week.

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