The volume wasn't great, but the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is again challenging $252 resistance as sellers seemed reluctant to take profits. We may see volume if $252 is breached, but it's got to get there. The other beneficiary was Bitcoin ($BTCUSD), it was struggling a little but is now challenging the last swing high. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) has returned to an overbought state with the MACD above the bullish zero line. The index has outperforming the Nasdaq since bouncing off November lows. Breakouts come from an overbought state and the technical picture now is better than it was in mid-October, the last time it was challenging $252s.

There wasn't a whole lot of action in markets on Friday, but the breakout from the swing low in Bitcoin drifted below breakout support, but not enough to suggest it's done. The breakout failure needs to be watched because it will impact confidence in the Nasdaq and Semiconductor Index. The Nasdaq didn't post a big gain on Friday, but it helped build on the breakout of declining resistance. Volume rose in confirmed accumulation as the MACD trigger line returned above the bullish zero line (although the MACD trigger 'buy' occurred below the zero line, so it's building off a weak buy signal). Technicals are net bullish. The index would benefit from a solid white candlestick; existing shorts have no wiggle room and would be key contributors to this buying. Also, because of this buying, we are again in the 15% of historic price extremes relative to its 200-day MA (dating back to 1971). The S&P has been matching the Nasdaq, but Friday's fini...

The Russell 2000 ($IWM) has been the index to make all the running and today finally saw some modest accumulation. The index is well set to breakout, but it's also 14% above its 200-day MA, which puts it above 90% of historic price action dating back to 1987; if it gets to $258.25 it will be above 95% of historic price action, and at $276.76 it's 99%. The last time the index did that was April 2021...

Trading volume was very light, so it's unlikely the "Big Guns" returned to their desks. Given that, we didn't see a whole lot of action in the indices despite clickbait headlines. However, since my last post, we have seen resistance breakouts in the Russell 2000 ($IWM), S&P ($SPX) and Nasdaq ($COMPQ), but none are near challenging highs. However, the Russell 2000 and S&P have both returned to a net bullish technical picture. I would want to see what kind of action came with volume before we get a better idea of what comes next.

I shall open with this post by J.C. Parets , who offers a more bullish outlook for markets based on Dow Theory. I would be more cautious, as while buyers have controlled markets over the past four days, all that has done is push indices back into prior trading ranges. We are also in the Thanksgiving period, where volumes fall and junior traders control the desks. The real business returns on Monday. In the case of Dow Theory, the context of the improvement looks to be tied to the relative relationship between the Dow Transports and the Dow Industrials and a potential dead-cat bounce off the test of the 2020 low. A rise in this relationship should be bullish for markets, but this relationship has been in freefall since 2023 as Transports struggled to match the gains of the Dow Industral average. I'm not sure we have a confirmed breakout in the Transports, and momentum (red circle) has remained in the bearish camp despite the rally in Transports. A confirmed breakout in the Trasnp...

Interesting divergence at play in markets. Indices attempted to recover Thursday's losses to varying degress of success, but Bitcoin was excluded from this party. The weakest index was the Russell 2000, but Friday's buying surge has pushed it towards a relative performance advantage against peer Nasdaq and S&P indices. Technicals are still net negative and the index still trades below support, but Friday's buying registered as accumulation. The real test won't come until it hits declining resistance.

The pre-market optimism didn't last long, but when markets are coming off an extended high it's hard for buyers to return there, even off the back of 'good news'. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) opened bang on resistance at $237, and then it was all down from there. Volume surged in confirmed distribution, leaving the 200-day MA as the next logical support level.