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Upcoming "Death Cross" for Russell 2000 ($IWM)

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There was some modest buying today from the open, but volume was light and markets are below trading range support established during the latter part of 2024. It's hard to see where the buyers are going to come from given the chaos of Trump. I should add, I listened to Josh Brown's The Compound podcast and he showed an interesting chart of market returns in April-May in the year following a strong return in markets; in essence, selling to pay capital gains tax. Given the precarious nature of markets, and the possibility for this seasonal factor to play out, it's likely we have a couple more months of downward action before value buyers return. If we look at individual markets, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is looking like the first to signal a long term shift in favor of bears with an upcoming "Death Cross" between the 50-day MA and 200-day MA - perhaps completing before the end of the week. Technicals are net bearish and the volume trend has collapsed since the st...
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Glass Half Full or Half Empty into 2026?

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Interesting times lie ahead for 2026. Technology can't be expected to carry the markets again next year, and a decent correction - or more likely a sideways shift - is something to watch for. Given this slow down, there are 495 stocks (outside the top 5 tech stocks that have carried the index) in the S&P that look ready to take up the slack. The breakout in the equal weighted S&P should stick into 2026, but it will need to hold 7,795 breakout support (and 20-day MA) if this isn't going to morph into a 'bull trap' and a likely move back to 7,500. Such a move wouldn't be terminal, but it will leave traders scrambling for guidance.
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Breakouts in Russell 2000 and Equal Weight S&P Remain Stalled, But Not Defeated

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When the breakouts in the Russell 2000 ($IWM) and equal-weighted S&P ($SPXEW) remain under breakout support (again resistance) I would expect selling to expand and the breakouts to quickly dissipate, but this hasn't quite happened yet. However, buyers will need to make a stand before the year is out so when real trading resumes in the New Year, bulls will have something to work with. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) remains stuck below $250, and today's 'black' candlestick is not one to suggest bulls will have it easy tomorrow. A weak 'sell' trigger in the MACD doesn't help, but in itself is not too damaging.
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Loses Undercut Russell 2000 Breakout, But No Real Damage Done

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It was coming, but only because markets have performed strongly since November lows. We have seen breakouts in the Russell 2000 ($IWM) and equal-weighted S&P, but both have drifted below their breakout levels. It wouldn't take much to recover these loses, but buyers still have some heavy lifting to do. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) closed with an indecisive doji after two days of selling, but I would consider an indecisive doji at breakout support more bullish. Technicals are nest positive, but On-Balance-Volume is close to a 'sell' trigger. However, the index is enjoying relative outperformance.
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Distribution Strikes But Russell 2000 ($IWM) Breakout Holds

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Friday's losses gave back some of the early week gains, but losses weren't enough to derail the bullishness on the week. The strongest index was the Russell 2000 ($IWM). It started last week pressuring $252 resistance, managed to break mid-week, but got caught up in the Friday sell-off in Semiconductors. Technicals are net bullish with momentum in overbought territory - a key driver for breakouts, and Friday's loss didn't weaken that. For Monday, watch for a spike low below $252, where anything sub-$250 might be an opportunity to grab a long position for an upcoming Santa rally.
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Breakout In Dow Jones Industrial Follows Yesterday's Breakout in Russell 2000

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Indices are making their way higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average making a clean break of resistance on modest volume. The heavy volume gains came yesterday for this index with technicals net bullish. The Dow breakout looks good, but the weekly chart points to resistance. The index could run steadily higher along this resistance line, but a breakout would accelerate the advance.
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New Thresholds Established As Russell 2000 Pressures All-Time Highs

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The volume wasn't great, but the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is again challenging $252 resistance as sellers seemed reluctant to take profits. We may see volume if $252 is breached, but it's got to get there. The other beneficiary was Bitcoin ($BTCUSD), it was struggling a little but is now challenging the last swing high. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) has returned to an overbought state with the MACD above the bullish zero line. The index has outperforming the Nasdaq since bouncing off November lows. Breakouts come from an overbought state and the technical picture now is better than it was in mid-October, the last time it was challenging $252s.
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Bitcoin Slips A Little As Other Indices Stall

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There wasn't a whole lot of action in markets on Friday, but the breakout from the swing low in Bitcoin drifted below breakout support, but not enough to suggest it's done. The breakout failure needs to be watched because it will impact confidence in the Nasdaq and Semiconductor Index. The Nasdaq didn't post a big gain on Friday, but it helped build on the breakout of declining resistance. Volume rose in confirmed accumulation as the MACD trigger line returned above the bullish zero line (although the MACD trigger 'buy' occurred below the zero line, so it's building off a weak buy signal). Technicals are net bullish. The index would benefit from a solid white candlestick; existing shorts have no wiggle room and would be key contributors to this buying. Also, because of this buying, we are again in the 15% of historic price extremes relative to its 200-day MA (dating back to 1971). The S&P has been matching the Nasdaq, but Friday's fini...
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