Aside from a rise in oil prices, which were already trending higher prior to Israel's, and "tag-along" U.S., strike on Iran it remains to be seen what long term impact this will have on markets. I'm always looking at how indices relate relative to their 200-day MAs, and since the latter part of 2025 to now, this relationship is no longer overbought and not the risk I thought coming into 2026. However, we do have well-defined support levels to work with and these should be tested early next week. Again, a loss here wouldn't be hugely damaging as we have 200-day MAs below to offer support. What will be damaging is, as probably expected, the Iran conflict extends into a series of terrorist attacks on U.S. interests to goad the U.S. (and Israel?) into putting boots-on-the-ground in Iran. The Middle East is never a clear in-and-out, and there is no record of success for the U.S. to lean on here. In such a scenario, we have the makings of drip-drip losses in the market ...

I haven't commented much on the Semiconductor Index, but yesterday brought with it a small candlestick and a gap higher that tagged the measured move target. While today saw a 3%+ loss and a potential bearish evening star. The loss came with a MACD trigger and CCI 'sell'; the MACD 'sell' faking off yesterday's 'buy' signal. Aggressive shorts could look for a test of the 50-day MA (a cover price), but in broader terms the trading range is the dominant pattern.

Bitcoin lost ground off its failed test of the 20-day MA. It's now pushing for a retest of the bullish piercing pattern from the start of February. In addition, it's very close to reaching the measured move target marked by the red-hashed line in the chart.

It was looking ugly for markets in early trading but buyers stepped in to bid markets up by the close. The S&P tagged support in what offered itself as a buying opportunity, although momentum is not fully oversold, which means a retest of the low (if markets bounce from here) is a strong possibility.

Just as losses were softened by the range bound aspects of lead markets, same go for Friday's gains. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) managed a retest of what was a 'bull flag' with technicals net bearish.

Nasty set of red candlesticks painted the market, but most of these occurred within the context of trading ranges. It will be a question of balance as Materials and Staples make gains, as Technology suffers. Bitcoin has been on to a hiding, but the retest of the capitulation is coming on modest action and lower volume - the kind of trading you want to see for a tradeable bottom. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) took a 2% hit on higher volume distribution, with the 50-day MA coming into range as a support test. A bullish play would be for a tag of $255 support followed by an end-of-day close above the 50-day MA. Technicals show 'sell' triggers for MACD, On-Balance-Volume and +DI/-DI. Things only get bearish if $255 support is lost. More of a worry is the equal weighted S&P; early gains were quickly reversed, leaving a nasty spike that has a toppy look to it. Technicals are still positive and the 20-day MA has playes as support swing the swing low in November. I think a ...

The S&P and Nasdaq have stalled rallies that haven't yet challenged resistance of their respective trading ranges. There is a case the Nasdaq has come up against resistance, that was once support, of the prior bullish ascending triangle. This level is also near converged 20-day and 50-day MAs. It could be a shorting opportunity with a move to trading range support.