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Upcoming "Death Cross" for Russell 2000 ($IWM)

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There was some modest buying today from the open, but volume was light and markets are below trading range support established during the latter part of 2024. It's hard to see where the buyers are going to come from given the chaos of Trump. I should add, I listened to Josh Brown's The Compound podcast and he showed an interesting chart of market returns in April-May in the year following a strong return in markets; in essence, selling to pay capital gains tax. Given the precarious nature of markets, and the possibility for this seasonal factor to play out, it's likely we have a couple more months of downward action before value buyers return. If we look at individual markets, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is looking like the first to signal a long term shift in favor of bears with an upcoming "Death Cross" between the 50-day MA and 200-day MA - perhaps completing before the end of the week. Technicals are net bearish and the volume trend has collapsed since the st...
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Equal Weight Nasdaq 100 Makes Gains As Other Indices Fade

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It was a bit of a mixed day for indices as the equal-weight Nasdaq 100 bucked the trend of other indices and posted strong gains. Remaining indices suffered profit gains as sellers made a long awaited appearance. It was odd to see the equal wieghted Nasdaq 100 makes such a clean move, tagging resistance in the process. Technicals - including relative performance - are firmly in the bullish camp, although it has yet to break to new 2026 highs, which if it was to follow the Semiconductor Index, would mean big gains lie ahead for the index.
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Russell 2000 Kicks On As Bitcoin Approaches 200-day MA and Semis Break

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It was a good day for the Russell 2000 as yesterday's indecision was negated by a respectable day of buying. Technicals are net bullish, but today's volume was a little disappointing given new all-time highs. Better was the S&P, in that it registered an accumulation day with a new closing high. There could be a good day trade if tomorrow starts with a gap high, forcing shorts to cover (although there is unlikely to be many), but no overhead resistance. The equal-weighted S&P bounced off 'bull flag' support and will again be challenging February highs after the last failed test in early April. I expect this test to succeed in breaking higher (why? because triple tops are rare). The Nasdaq is taking baby steps higher and volume has been reasonable, but hardly spectacular - which is probably a good thing. Bitcoin is very close to testing its 200-day MA, and may do so as early as tomorrow. This will likely be a profit taking opportunity, so i...
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Indices Manage New Breakouts

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Lead indices had a good end-of-week finish that registered fresh breakouts. The slingshot index could be the Russell 2000 ($IWM). It traded a nice handle before it broke lower in what looked to be a pending test of its 20-day MA. But instead of that, it reversed and has now broken to the upside. We are looking for a potential measured move target of 320(ish).
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Russell 2000 ($IWM) Breakdown or "Bear Trap"?

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There is an interesting setup coming for the Russell 2000 ($IWM) Today's action saw a move back into last week's breakout gap that registered as a breakdown from its narrow handle, BUT, retained the characteristics of the breakout by remaining above $270. In addition, we have a fast approaching 20-day MA that could provide a cue for buyers to step in. Technicals remain net bullish, although today's volume registered as distribution. While I tend to be a 'glass-half-full' person, I am leaning here towards a possible 'bear trap' that should resolve tomorrow; if we see buyers step in after the first half-hour of trading (when the likely direction for the market that day is established), then it might be worth a long play.
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