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Upcoming "Death Cross" for Russell 2000 ($IWM)

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There was some modest buying today from the open, but volume was light and markets are below trading range support established during the latter part of 2024. It's hard to see where the buyers are going to come from given the chaos of Trump. I should add, I listened to Josh Brown's The Compound podcast and he showed an interesting chart of market returns in April-May in the year following a strong return in markets; in essence, selling to pay capital gains tax. Given the precarious nature of markets, and the possibility for this seasonal factor to play out, it's likely we have a couple more months of downward action before value buyers return. If we look at individual markets, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is looking like the first to signal a long term shift in favor of bears with an upcoming "Death Cross" between the 50-day MA and 200-day MA - perhaps completing before the end of the week. Technicals are net bearish and the volume trend has collapsed since the st...
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Tweezer Top In Equal Weight S&P - Double Top Semiconductors

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Back from holiday, and indices flash another round of topping patterns following earlier patterns which were breached, so while one could go short, you don't want to be holding if pattern highs are breached. While I missed the annoucement, the real shocker was the multi-decade lows posted by the Consumer Sentiment Survey - perhaps one of the few legitimate data points that can be trusted. In the past, this has been a bullish signal as the low in sentiment preceeded the low in markets - but markets are at multi-year highs, so I have no idea what will come next.
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Bitcoin Collapse Goes Against The Grain

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Indices are all doing what good indices should in a bull market, but Bitcoin has taken a sharp move down following the rejection at the 200-day MA (and subsequent break of the 50-day MA). As to which side of the coin wins out remains to be seen, but given cryptos relationship to the tech sector it's hard to see how each could continue in their respective directions without at some point aligning. Last week, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) staged a new breakout beyond $287 and then preceeded to trade in a narrow range on low volume. Expectation is for this to continue higher, but a loss of $287 would open up the potential for a 'bull trap' and set things for a move to $270. Technicals are net positive, but the MACD is shaping a bearish divergence.
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Russell 2000 Breakout and AI concerns

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The long weekend has been kind to markets. The Russell 2000 finally joined lead indices with a breakout to new highs. The MACD is still on a 'sell' trigger, but other technicals are bullish once more.
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Buyers Defend Support On Higher Volume Accumulation

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After a couple of weeks of selling, buyers decided to step in and reverse the near term trend. Buying volume stepped up in confirmed accumulation. It was a good trade for those who took advantage, and it's increasingly looking like new trading ranges will come out of this. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) had a support level to work with, but will likely find resistance at its 20-day MA.
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