We've had the AI panic sell, and the 'its not so bad' rebound, happen all within the trading ranges set by August lows and September highs - in effect, a whole lot of noise - unless your name is Jensen Huang and you are/were the CEO of Nividia. What this means going forward remains to be determined, but outside of Nvidia it's neither bullish nor bearish. Those who trade the ranges will have managed to bank a nice gain on the short trades generated by the various bull traps across the indices that led to the subsequent sell off, and undercut of prior range support. The S&P has returned to declining resistance within its trading range, closing with a spike high through this resistance level, and finishing close to the level that defined swing low support in September. Technicals are mixed, but there is a working return in bullish accumulation for On-Balance-Volume that may be the catalyst for a push back to 7.8K and a challenge on the prior 'bull trap'. It...

After the "Black Thursday" sale it was no surprise to see indices recover some of those losses. From the top, we had the Russell 2000 ($IWM) finding support just above $270. We may see some upside, but look for sellers/shorts to reappear when prices get close to the 200-day MA (near $278). Technicals are mixed, but important to note is that stochastics have been running below the 50-midline since late August, which is a confirmed bearish setup, despite the October rally. I would be happier waiting for a move above the 50-day MA if wanting a long-term bullish play, otherwise fade the rally to the 200-day/50-day MAs. The equal-weighted S&P ($SPXEW) managed to find support at its 50-day MA, but this is a range bound index, and we are trading in the middle of that range, so I wouldn't put too much weight on moving average support. And as I said before, "bull traps" typically come all they way back to supportof the prior range. Technicals are net bullish...

It has been a long time since we have seen a day like today, but it does offer clarity after week's of range bound trading. In the end, it turned into the battle of the equal-weighted S&P versus AI-centric Semiconductors in determining larger control of the market and it looks like Semiconductors have won out, but the larger bullish trend is still intact. Semiconductors are interesting because they have been steadily gaining until the latter part of 2025, when they blew upwards. We are now seeing mean reversion as the index makes a return towards its former set of trendlines. The interesting thing about Semiconductors is if you look at the projected measured move target down, it neatly intersects the first of the two bullish trendlines. What this means for individual AI stocks - government policy to Data Centers - remains to be seen, but in all likelihood we will have some consolidation, but can expect the trend to continue upwards similar to how tech markets recovered after ...

The Equal-Weighted S&P ($SPXEW) lost ground today, but it's the last main attraction for bulls. The trend from September's lows has defied two shorting opportunities previously marked at declining trend resistance and the 50-day MA. The 20-day MA may offer itself as support if selling was to contine beyond today, but this is at least a workable bounce zone. Technicals are net bullish, but the bounce off September lows has been running in a narrow range and looks prone to a widening, not necessarily a reversal.