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Russell 2000 Undercuts 200-Day MA Despite Today's Buying

Buyers step up after yesterday's losses, losses that registered as distribution. Buyers returned on good volume, and in some cases, exceeded the losses of yesterday. But the buying was not necessarily enough to reverse the damage of Wednesday's losses.

The Russell 2000 ($IWM) did not survive its third test of its 200-day MA in the space of a couple of weeks. Technicals are now net bearish with a new (strong) MACD 'sell' trigger. Traders need to be careful here. Today's buying (a "two-bar reversal") in an oversold condition should register as a long-trade opportunity, and it may yet still do, but with the psychological break of the 200-day MA it's hard to see this turning into a strong bounce. And we are now in the kind of situation where crashes emerge. We should see a move to the 200-day or even the 20-day MA, but beyond that, it's hard to say.

What I'm liking more is the action in the equal-weighted S&P. Today offered a solid gain, with the 50-day MA as the last piece of resistance before the prior high is challenged. The weighted S&P finished with a bullish piercing pattern that cut across both 20-day and 50-day MAs, but the significance of this is weakened by the lack of an oversold state. However, the equal-weighted S&P is building a good head of steam with technicals improving.

The Nasdaq is in a interesting position. We had a fake breakout that ended in a 'bearish evening start, before morphing into a "bull trap". As is typical of "bull traps" we can look for a move back to prior trading range support with the first level at 26K and then 24.5K. Technicals are mixed but are likely to move more bearish over the coming days and weeks. Today's gain didn't make enough inroads into yesterday's candle to be considered bullish, but we may yet see a weak bounce.

Bitcoin has shown mixed action over the last couple of weeks, but today's bullish hammer on the 50-day MA is a reason for optimism, combined with today's higher volume accumulation. The only downside is I would have liked stochastics to have tested the mid-line. Volume has been trending lower since the breakout, but a few more days like today will reverse that. This is a long trade opportunity.

The bearish engulfing pattern in the Dow Industrial Average has almost been negated. Technicals have improved with only stochastics bearish. Next up is the 50-day MA, similar to the equal-weighted S&P.

The Semiconductor Index drifted back into its base and is looking at a test of its 200-day MA. Technicals are net bearish but are not oversold. The last point is important as crashes occur (when they do) when stochastics are oversold, but this is not the case here.

A mixed bag across indices. The Russell 2000 had looked like the one to offer the tradeable bounce, but this has failed since the undercut of the 200-day MA. The equal-weighted S&P and Dow are workable long trades. The S&P and Nasdaq may bounce, but such a bounce is likely to lead to a short play rather than one to cling onto as a long.

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Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.

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