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Upcoming "Death Cross" for Russell 2000 ($IWM)

...And Then Sellers Pushed Hard

I don't know if the equal-weighted S&P is a harbringer of things to come for other indices, but a second day of heavy selling has undercut the 50-day MA, and breakout support. Technicals shifted net bearish with a worrying undercut of mid-level stochastics. The next support level is down at 8,600s, but I want to see oversold stochastics on such a test. However, the ease at which existing support was lost is a concern.

The Russell 2000 ($IWM) gapped-and-ran lower in what looks destined to become a test of $286. Technicals have turned net bearish but are not oversold - again, another reason to think a test of $286 is on the way. Not to harp on the negativity, but today was a second day of distribution in a row.

The S&P recorded a modest loss, but on net distribution. It hasn't undercut the swing low (yet), but it's hard to see how it can hold on. The prudent action may to step-off and wait and see how it performs around 7,600 before getting back on again. If this closes below 7,600, then I'm looing for a move back to 7,250 (and probably a test of the 200-day MA at the same time).

For the Nasdaq, the 50-day MA is the line in the sand. I would accept an intraday violation, but a solid red candlestick slicing through the moving average is a 'no-go'.

Bitcoin sits in an interesting spot. The August surge consolidated around 77.5K, mounted a challenge of 82.5K, before drifting back to its 20-day MA. I would like to see a sharp drop down to 75K to knock out stops, then a recovery back to 77.5K. The cheeky play is to set GTC buy orders around 75K (above and below) then wait-and-see.

I was bullish for markets, but I'm shifting more neutral. The long trades in the Nasdaq and S&P haven't been violated yet, but should selling in the equal-weighted S&P and Russell 2000 continue then it would be hard for other indices to avoid the damage.

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Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.

Popular posts from this blog

Upcoming "Death Cross" for Russell 2000 ($IWM)

Sellers Accelerate Action As Confirmed Distribution Kicks In

S&P Prepares For Breakout

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