Bitcoin has traded around its 200-week MA for the best part of the summer, and I have been saying it was a long-term buy at this level. The past few days have seen this cryptocurrency surge, setting in motion the start of the development of the right-hand-base. This base started from the decline in the summer of 2025, and will likely require another year or two before it makes its way back to $125; realistically, it could spend another year trading between $65K and $83K.

While Bitcoin climbs higher, lead indices head lower. The breakout in the S&P is still intact, but the 'bull trap' is confirmed.

The Russell 2000 ($IWM) has confirmed its 'bull trap' with new 'sell' triggers in the MACD, On-Balance-Volume and +DI/-DI. While volume has been generally light, the past few days have seen distribution creep higher.

There was selling in the Nasdaq, but it carries little weight because its range bound.

Heading into tomorrow, focus will be on Bitcoin as traders look for opportunities. Shorts will need to keep their stops tight should bulls decide to step in as they have been all too ready to do this past year. The Russell 2000 looks the best shorting opportunity as confirmed 'bull traps' are reliable indicators for moves back to support - which for the Russell 2000 is around $287. There may be some action at the 20-day/50-day MA, but given the last test was as recently as July, the incentive for buyers to step in here will be less.

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Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.