After Monday's AI sell-off sent tech stocks reeling, we had some comeback as buyers filled the void, only for traders to take some quick profits off yesterday's bounce. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) posted its third indecisive doji in a row as it lingers near its 50-day MA and $226 support, but there was also a bearish reversal off mid-level stochastics combined with a distribution day. The index is positioned for a bounce and has held up better than the S&P and Nasdaq, so it's more likely to attract the next round of buying, and tomorrow would be as good as any.

Ugly day driven by tech declines has stalled broader rallies, but not killed them. The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to act oblivious and went against what I thought might have been straight forward reversal off resistance. Whether DeepSeek proves to be a catalyst for a larger decline won't be clear until support breaks across impacted indices. The good news is the Dow Jones posted a solid day and is on its way to challenge 45.1K highs. Volume climbed to register as accumulation. Technicals are solidly net positive.

After Thursday's big wins for markets it was going to be hard for Friday to deliver a follow through. Instead we got some pullback, but nothing to suggest double tops are a risk. For next week, I will be looking for the Russell 2000 to push through its 50-day MA, which I suspect it will do on a decent 'white' candlestick and will offer a good day trade opportunity.

So the Trump Bump continues to play out in favor of bulls. Tuesday delivered a clear breakout of the downward channel with only the 50-day MA left to play as resistance. From a technical perspective, there is only stochastics [39,1] left to cross the bullish threshold. Although, the index has switched to underperformance relative to the Nasdaq.

Friday was a bit of a mixed bag. It was good to see the S&P breakout, but it also coincided with a Russell 2000 ($IWM) that closed on a 'black' candelstick at downward channel resistance. In the case of the S&P, Friday finished with an accumulation day to go with a MACD trigger 'buy' and stochstic [39,1] bull cross over, following on from the earlier On-Balance-Volume 'buy' signal. The chief point of weakness is the doji marking the breakout. This is a neutral candlestick and represents indecision - leaving doubt as to the validity of the breakout.

After yesterday's big gains it was always going to be hard for markets to continue in the same vein. All markets are near 20-day MAs, with the Russell 2000 ($IWM) just above this key moving average and the S&P and Nasdaq just below. Volume was down on yesterday, so no distribution or accumulation to record. The Russell 2000 is trading just below channel resistance, but has seen new 'buy' triggers in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume. Yesterday's breakout gap leaves a big void to such prices into. Remember, a true breakout gap can't close.

There were early signs of recovery for some markets, but now all lead markets are showing net bearish technicals. If you are a trading bull looking for silver linings, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) successfully tested its 200-day MA yesterday and left with a 'bear trap' today. There was a 'bull' cross in On-Balance-Volume and in relative performance against the Nasdaq. But I wouldn't be buying the porsche on this. The 20-day MA as resistance for the Santa Rally and could prove to be resistance again by the end of week.

End of week breakdowns for the Russell 2000 ($IWM) and Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJIA) puts pressure on averages for next week. There is an opportunity for 'bear traps' next week but follow through losses Monday would likely kill that chance off. The Russell 2000 has the best chance to deliver on the 'bear trap' given the proximity of the 200-day MA. Technicals are net bearish, but the MACD is on course for a weak 'buy' signal. A close above $219 would confirm the trap, but a sustainable reversal won't come until there is a break of the 20-day MA.

Yesterday's weak finish set a precendent for today. Premarket action had offered some cause for optimism, but strong economic data sent markets packing, and it will take something substantial to indices out of their current trading ranges. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is still very much working off its Christmas hangover. The sizable red candlestick casts a substantial gloom on the index. We just missed a test of the 200-day MA in September, and it's hard to see any recovery coming without a fresh test of this average. But even then, it might not be enough. The last big push below its 200-day MA was in October 2023. Another such move in 2025 would bring short term pain, but would likely be good in the long term. The S&P had a Santa rally that clawed back the losses of the big red candlestick, but it wasn't enough to challenge the "bull trap". Today, we saw a sell-off triggered by supply at the S&P's 20-day MA. We may yet see buyers try to defend the ...

In April last year I took a look at the market potential for a downturn that ultimately, never materialized. That scenario was negated by the break of the March high during the summer, followed by a sequence of higher highs and higher lows as part of a bull market cycle. So what will 2025 bring? First off, I took a look at search-sentiment. How many people have searched for the term "market crash" in the United States? More often than not, these spikes - when they occur - are more often associated with major market bottoms than market tops. When we match the search spikes to a chart of the S&P we can see how nearby market lows turn into major market lows. The odd one out could be the June 2024 search spike as there was barely a pause in the advance, not something we have seen during other search-spikes, with the possibe exception of the February 2018 spike. However, what I do like about the 2024 spike is how it occurred around a solid psychological suppo...