Fifty-day MAs offer little support as indices seek swing lows
Monday's selling left no doubt as to who's in control of markets. The real disappointment was how little the 50-day MA played as support given how long ago it was last tested. Instead, we are are left looking at alternative support levels for buyers to step in.
The S&P moved to a net bearish technical picture after months of been net bullish. It's unclear where support may come in so I have included Fibonacci retracements as a guide. Interestingly, today's narrow range day occurred at the 61.8% retracement line, so we may see some bounce (likely, not much) tomorrow. The 38.2% zone is also near a January peak (and successful support test in February), so if there is no bounce tomorrow, then the 38.2% zone is likely next.
Things are a little tighter for the Nasdaq. I have included Fibonacci retracements and the area that screams out the most is the proximity of the 38.2% retracement zone is to the December swing high peak. I suspect, this is where the current decline will find its buyers.
The Russell 2000 ($IWM) has struggled ever since the 'bull trap'. Unlike the S&P and Nasdaq it has long since said 'goodbye' to Decemeber swing high support. Successful 'bull traps' typically retrace all of the move back to the lows of the prior consolidation, and to add to this, the 200-day MA is sitting right on these lows, so this is where I'm looking for this decline to end. Technicals are net bearish and the index is underperforming relative to it peers.
The Russell 2000 ($IWM) will likely be the first index to find its low and this will be good news for the broader market if it can lead a reversal. Small Caps typically lead market recoveries and I would be optimistic for something happening when the 200-day MA is tested.
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Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.
