Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Stock Market Commentary: Support at 20-day MAs

It was a picture perfect bounce off the 20-day MA for the Nasdaq as relative strength to the S&P swung one way then the next, so no real winner yet. Yesterday's OBV bearish crossover reversed but a couple of mild sell-offs over the next few days will likely be enough to re-instate the 'sell' trigger.

Small Caps got a healthy bounce off support and any follow through tomorrow will have shorts running for cover once more

Semiconductors recovered some ground at their 20-day MA but bears will be stronger on the return to 370 as startled buyers from the past few days look to exit at breakeven.

If money rotation continues towards Large Caps then the rally in the S&P will be slow to reverse.

Further evidence for a shift away from Tech comes from a sharp reversal in the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA at resistance (75%) although supporting technicals have yet to follow

No given index has stumbled yet, but the likelihood is for weakness to hit the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 with the S&P to benefit from rotation. However, if weakness in Tech spreads to Small Caps it will only be a matter of time before Large Caps fall with them.

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