Stock Market Commentary by Dr. Declan Fallon; est. Jan 8th 2005
Exponent (EXPO)
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I had featured Exponent (EXPO) in early March. The past three days have created what looks to be a short term blow-off top and is reason enough to take some money off the table.
The Nasdaq started brightly but ended up closing below its open price, but above yesterday's close. The S&P did something similar, although the intraday range is narrower. These two setups are somewhat complicated by the new 'buy' triggers in On-Balance-Volume for both the Nasdaq and S&P. And the new MACD trigger 'buy' for the S&P. Price action is key, so I would expect the candlestick to trump the technical picture; watch for lower prices tomorrow.
I'm trying the Topstep Trader Combine as a sampler to day trading and it's an interesting setup with minimal outlay costs to get started. I'm not a huge fan of their platform UI but everything else has been pretty good so far. Today was one of those days where I waiting (and waiting) for the profit taking to kick in, but by the time sellers made their appearance I had reached my loss limit for the day and so that, was that. You can see all of my whipsaw trades here. For the record, I only work off price action, looking at support/resistance and tells like rapid stop take outs, usually a good sign for a reversal.
It was a setting up to be a low key day, but come the afternoon, sellers pounced and drove markets down hard after doubts raised on future rate cuts. Fed news wasn't the key takeaway, but the loss of support was. The S&P was hardest hit, not because of the percentage loss, but because of the volatility relative to recent trading action. Today marked a clear breakdown of trendline support. It should be noted, the presence of the 50-day MA offers a point of defence but today's loss does not mean we will see a crash; a time-led consolidation seems more likely. Technically, the MACD accelerated its losses and there was a fresh 'sell' in On-Balance-Volume.