Thursday, March 06, 2008

Bullish Percents

The indices were thrown back into the quagmire of the past 2-month consolidations as the Bullish Percents flipped negative once more. It was interesting to see the DOW hold 12,200 as support:

With a comparable support level (1,324) visible for the S&P:

But resistance, rather than support, was clearer for the Nasdaq:

Given the position of the bullish percents, should one view them as bullish or bearish?

Bears will look to the lack of oversold conditions in the bullish percents as an opportunity to push stocks trying to lead a rally out lower.

Bulls will see increasing strength from stocks posting new breakouts on point-n-figure charts as diverging from the weakness in the indices. As fewer and fewer stocks drag on the indices, the quicker - and sharper - the resulting rally will be.

I hold to my opinion that January lows mark a significant bottom, but these may be violated for a brief period. Long positions look more favorable than short plays, but cash is not a bad place to be as the struggle plays out.