Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Bullish Percents mixed once more

The Nasdaq Bullish Percent turned bearish with a drop below its 5-day EMA. If this weakness was to represent itself in the index I would look for a new closing low for February (but not necessarily a break of the month's intraday lows). However, the index does sit close to a break of declining resistance connecting January, and both February reaction highs - a big day this week would break through this resistance and likely negate the 'sell' trigger in the Nasdaq Bullish Percent:

Better was the leading action in the Dow Bullish Percent. It finished Monday at 33% having managed a new reaction high for the month. This strength filtered through to the index Monday when it made its first break of the two reaction highs for February. Look for this strength to continue with a further push above 12,750 (but 12,200 can't be violated on a closing basis):

The S&P Bullish Percents has yet to push above its February reaction high. The action in the index is a little better in that it has surpassed its first reaction high for February, in addition to a resistance line connecting December and the two February reaction highs (based on closing price - but resistance connecting January and the two February reaction highs holds).

On a final note, the VIX looks ready to test its 200-day MA as I had suggested here. Bears would then be in a better position to scare bulls out of their positions.