Fallond / Trade Ideas / Jim Cramer : April 19th

My Newsletter picks enjoyed another profitable week (+3.96%) in the face of market weakness (-0.41%). My Trade Ideas scan picks closed flat (+0.09%). Jim Cramer suffered another hit with a -2.18% loss after some earlier success during the week.

The big winner on the week (I think it is the biggest weekly winner to date) was LEA. The stock, available to subscribers, closed up +35%. It helped compensate for the weeks biggest loser (also a subscriber pick unfortunately), NGAS, which closed down -11%.

It was a tough week for picking winners; JC had the poorest performance with only 1 profitable stock in 8; my own picks managed 3 winners out of 6. My Trade Ideas scan picks fell in the middle.



Below is an updated performance chart for 1-week returns. It represents 25 repeat samples since early February 2006, each comprised of 6-8 stocks per system.

Best of the bunch is the Trade Ideas scan with an average weekly return of +0.78%. Jim Cramer and I are fighting it out for second with returns in the +0.70% area, while the market ETFs hold last place (+0.47%).

For the sake of clarity I have not added the standard error to the chart but this is a very important parameter as it reflects upon the consistency of the stock picking system. Trade Ideas was the most consistent stock picking system with a 50% variation about the mean return (i.e. +/-0.39%); volatility of my newsletter picks was significantly higher and represented 112% of the weekly return; Jim Cramer's error ran at 80% of his returns. The market ETFs had a comparable volatility to the Trade Ideas stocks (but with half the returns) running at 49%.


If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial.

If you would like to subscribe to my newsletter you can do so by ordering monthly, 6-month, or annual membership from the 'Quantity' box in the right-hand-margin.

If you would like to see Jim's picks you can tune into his TV show, or get them from Madd Money or Mad Money Recap.

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