Markets brushed off Trump's interference in the Fed and buyers were able to return indices to their highs, albeit on light volume. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) was perhaps the main beneficiary, as it returned with a new On-Balance-Volume 'buy' signal. It's the index of choice if you are a buyer as it has spent most of 2025 underperforming, but now finds itself in the ascendancy.

When markets looked ready to drift lower buyers dug their heels in and defended 20-day MAs. The biggest beneficiary was the Russell 2000 ($IWM). Once again, it returned to a breakout, although the index triggered a new On-Balance-Volume 'sell' on today's light trading. On the flip side, relative performance to peer indices has accelerated in its favor, kicking off a new phase of outperformance which should last beyond Friday's surge.

Because markets have been posting small gains higher, it means they are vulnerable to any single day of heavy selling. The good news, we haven't really seen that with any of the lead indices. The one exception was Bitcoin. The day after it posted it's breakout it reversed into a bull trap on higher volume distribution. Since then it has undercut its 50-day MA with technicals net bearish. I wouldn't be surprised if this drifted all the way back to 100K and its 200-day MA.

There hasn't been a whole lot of change on the daily time frame across indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU/$DJIA/$DIA) has been indicating a possible breakout on the daily time frame, but it's now looking so on the weekly time frame; this week is as good as any to see this happen. There was a fresh 'buy' trigger for On-Balance-Volume on this time frame to go with a recent 'buy' trigger in the MACD. Higher volume accumulation is a bonus.

There wasn't a whole lot going on with indices. There was a solid follow through in the Russell 2000 ($IWM) yesterday that gives the index wiggle room to support. The Nasdaq and S&P maintained their breakouts. The one fly in the ointment was Bitcoin ($BTCUSD). There was a confirmed 'bull trap' with an undercut of breakout support on higher volume selling distribution.

When I left for holidays the Russell 2000 ($IWM) made a breakout, only to dip below breakout support. But upon return, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) has gone on to make a new breakout on higher volume accumulation. However, technicals are still mixed, although the MACD trigger and On-Balance-Volume are close to fresh buy triggers.