Thursday, January 08, 2015

S&P Rallies Past 38% retracement

Well, I got this one wrong. I didn't think the S&P had the juice to put in the day that it did, although volume was perhaps a little disappointing. Volume did enough to register an accumulation day, although buying volume was well down on previous selling volume.

In terms of technicals, only On-Balance-Volume generated a 'buy' trigger. All other technicals remain bearish.

However, I still don't like this rally, but it must be respected (for now). Because of degree of comeback, a move to 2,087 is favoured, but given the retest of 1,971 failed after the New Year decline, then a test of 2,087 has a high chance of failing too. Most likely long term outcome is a trading range between 2,087 and 1,971.


The Nasdaq was another index making a big recovery. It regained both 20-day and 50-day MA (as did the S&P), with an On-Balance-Volume 'buy' trigger. Like the S&P, this is looking like a new trading range.


The Russell 2000 is also range bound. Unlike the other indices, it's at least shaping a handle as part of a larger bullish pattern.


Tomorrow is likely to be a neutral day given the extent of today's advance.

Share on StockTwits

---
Accepting KIVA gift certificates to help support the work on this blog. All certificates gifted are converted into loans for those who need the help more.
Follow Me on Twitter


Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com, and Product Development Manager for ActivateClients.com. You can read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com.
JOIN ZIGNALS TODAY - IT'S FREE!
 
f9229fcfd1b1390be00cfccc86c90349c93a4179bf4227457c