S&P Rallies Past 38% retracement

Well, I got this one wrong. I didn't think the S&P had the juice to put in the day that it did, although volume was perhaps a little disappointing. Volume did enough to register an accumulation day, although buying volume was well down on previous selling volume.

In terms of technicals, only On-Balance-Volume generated a 'buy' trigger. All other technicals remain bearish.

However, I still don't like this rally, but it must be respected (for now). Because of degree of comeback, a move to 2,087 is favoured, but given the retest of 1,971 failed after the New Year decline, then a test of 2,087 has a high chance of failing too. Most likely long term outcome is a trading range between 2,087 and 1,971.

The Nasdaq was another index making a big recovery. It regained both 20-day and 50-day MA (as did the S&P), with an On-Balance-Volume 'buy' trigger. Like the S&P, this is looking like a new trading range.

The Russell 2000 is also range bound. Unlike the other indices, it's at least shaping a handle as part of a larger bullish pattern.

Tomorrow is likely to be a neutral day given the extent of today's advance.

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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com, and Product Development Manager for ActivateClients.com. You can read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com.

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