Thursday, January 10, 2008

Gap (GPS)

Maybe not the first name to jump out of box, but this old dog (it has been caught in a trading range since 2004) might be about to learn a new trick. The chart shows a steadily rising price trend helped by the recent 'Golden Cross' between the 200-day and 50-day MAs. The past two days have seen some demand at the 200-day MA as indicated by the long, lower tail candlestick shadows - one of which also finished as a 'dragonfly doji'.

Technicals are a bit of a mixed bag, but the accumulation trend in on-balance-volume is clear. There may be a concern with the break of the August-November trend, but using the 200-day MA or candlestick lows for stop placement will help define downward risk.



Options; short term traders will be looking to the 20-day MA as a target (currently at $20.80); but the $20 Jan strike at $0.50 from the ask looks expensive, with the $20 Feb strike at $0.90 only marginally better. Best short term play would be the $15 Jan strike at $4.50 ($0.15 time premium). Long term buyers could look to the $15 strike Jan 2009 call at $6.00 or the $10 strike Jan 2010 call at $10.30.

 
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