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Semiconductor Index Rebounds Off Measured Move Target

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I haven't commented much on the Semiconductor Index, but yesterday brought with it a small candlestick and a gap higher that tagged the measured move target. While today saw a 3%+ loss and a potential bearish evening star. The loss came with a MACD trigger and CCI 'sell'; the MACD 'sell' faking off yesterday's 'buy' signal. Aggressive shorts could look for a test of the 50-day MA (a cover price), but in broader terms the trading range is the dominant pattern.
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Upcoming "Death Cross" for Russell 2000 ($IWM)

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There was some modest buying today from the open, but volume was light and markets are below trading range support established during the latter part of 2024. It's hard to see where the buyers are going to come from given the chaos of Trump. I should add, I listened to Josh Brown's The Compound podcast and he showed an interesting chart of market returns in April-May in the year following a strong return in markets; in essence, selling to pay capital gains tax. Given the precarious nature of markets, and the possibility for this seasonal factor to play out, it's likely we have a couple more months of downward action before value buyers return. If we look at individual markets, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is looking like the first to signal a long term shift in favor of bears with an upcoming "Death Cross" between the 50-day MA and 200-day MA - perhaps completing before the end of the week. Technicals are net bearish and the volume trend has collapsed since the st...
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Bitcoin Continues Decline As Measured Move Target Approaches

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Bitcoin lost ground off its failed test of the 20-day MA. It's now pushing for a retest of the bullish piercing pattern from the start of February. In addition, it's very close to reaching the measured move target marked by the red-hashed line in the chart.
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S&P Successfully Tests Range Support

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It was looking ugly for markets in early trading but buyers stepped in to bid markets up by the close. The S&P tagged support in what offered itself as a buying opportunity, although momentum is not fully oversold, which means a retest of the low (if markets bounce from here) is a strong possibility.
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Markets Remain Range Bound Despite Gains. Bitcoin Ambles.

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Just as losses were softened by the range bound aspects of lead markets, same go for Friday's gains. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) managed a retest of what was a 'bull flag' with technicals net bearish.
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Sellers Push Range Bound Markets As Bitcoin Heads For Retest

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Nasty set of red candlesticks painted the market, but most of these occurred within the context of trading ranges. It will be a question of balance as Materials and Staples make gains, as Technology suffers. Bitcoin has been on to a hiding, but the retest of the capitulation is coming on modest action and lower volume - the kind of trading you want to see for a tradeable bottom. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) took a 2% hit on higher volume distribution, with the 50-day MA coming into range as a support test. A bullish play would be for a tag of $255 support followed by an end-of-day close above the 50-day MA. Technicals show 'sell' triggers for MACD, On-Balance-Volume and +DI/-DI. Things only get bearish if $255 support is lost. More of a worry is the equal weighted S&P; early gains were quickly reversed, leaving a nasty spike that has a toppy look to it. Technicals are still positive and the 20-day MA has playes as support swing the swing low in November. I think a ...
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S&P and Nasdaq Remain Range Bound

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The S&P and Nasdaq have stalled rallies that haven't yet challenged resistance of their respective trading ranges. There is a case the Nasdaq has come up against resistance, that was once support, of the prior bullish ascending triangle. This level is also near converged 20-day and 50-day MAs. It could be a shorting opportunity with a move to trading range support.
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Equal Weighted S&P Surges as Russell 2000 Bounces Off Support

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With the tech sell-off clouding action in the S&P and Nasdaq we have to look elsewhere for positivity. And there is no lack of alternatives. The equal weighted S&P kicked on from its 'bull flag' breakout, posting a new high, and is well away from key support of 7,800 - meaning it has room for maneuver should tech weakness expand.
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