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Index Breakouts Hold As Bitcoin Makes A Move

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There wasn't a whole lot of change to indices following today's close. The Supreme Court has still to rule on tariffs and then there is the Powell noise to consider. It may have been easier for prices to drift lower, but instead, markets finished mostly flat. The one exception is Bitcoin. It's back knocking at the December high as it works towards a right-hand-base, with the last two days registering as accumulation days. For those seeking a long trade for the first half of 2026, Bitcoin could be the asset of choice.
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Upcoming "Death Cross" for Russell 2000 ($IWM)

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There was some modest buying today from the open, but volume was light and markets are below trading range support established during the latter part of 2024. It's hard to see where the buyers are going to come from given the chaos of Trump. I should add, I listened to Josh Brown's The Compound podcast and he showed an interesting chart of market returns in April-May in the year following a strong return in markets; in essence, selling to pay capital gains tax. Given the precarious nature of markets, and the possibility for this seasonal factor to play out, it's likely we have a couple more months of downward action before value buyers return. If we look at individual markets, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is looking like the first to signal a long term shift in favor of bears with an upcoming "Death Cross" between the 50-day MA and 200-day MA - perhaps completing before the end of the week. Technicals are net bearish and the volume trend has collapsed since the st...
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Fresh Breakout in Russell 2000 with confirmation in S&P

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Markets may be awaiting the ruling from the Supreme Court on tariffs, but expectation is for something favorable. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) made a clear break of its December swing high on a return in net bullish technicals.
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Has The Semiconductor Index ($SOX) Peaked?

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It has been a volatile past few days since the New Year rolled in and Markerts have been making big moves up and down over the space of days. The one index to watch for the coming couple of weeks is the Semiconductor Index ($SOX). The gains to new highs is narrowing the retracements zones with 5,400s coming into play more as a pullback target.
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S&P Breakout as Bitcoin Turns Net Bullish

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A positive day on higher volume for many assets. The best mover was the S&P, and the equal weighted S&P in particular, as it posted a second solid day in a row to confirm the breakout. If there is to be a measured move higher, then look for the equal-weighted S&P to get to 8,200s, and 7,350 for the S&P. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) hasn't yet posted a new high, but it's heading in the right direction on higher volume accumulation. Technicals are mostly bullish, with the MACD on the verge of a new 'buy' signal; when this happens technicals will be net bullish. The Nasdaq has so far only managed a weak gain, although Semiconductors have posted a new all-time high, albeit on a series of gap moves on net bullish technicals. Also helping is the improvement in Bitcoin. It has recovered from a potential 'bear flag', shifting to a sideways pattern. However, because it managed a capitulation on a spike low, on significant volume, and is (wel...
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Glass Half Full or Half Empty into 2026?

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Interesting times lie ahead for 2026. Technology can't be expected to carry the markets again next year, and a decent correction - or more likely a sideways shift - is something to watch for. Given this slow down, there are 495 stocks (outside the top 5 tech stocks that have carried the index) in the S&P that look ready to take up the slack. The breakout in the equal weighted S&P should stick into 2026, but it will need to hold 7,795 breakout support (and 20-day MA) if this isn't going to morph into a 'bull trap' and a likely move back to 7,500. Such a move wouldn't be terminal, but it will leave traders scrambling for guidance.
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Breakouts in Russell 2000 and Equal Weight S&P Remain Stalled, But Not Defeated

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When the breakouts in the Russell 2000 ($IWM) and equal-weighted S&P ($SPXEW) remain under breakout support (again resistance) I would expect selling to expand and the breakouts to quickly dissipate, but this hasn't quite happened yet. However, buyers will need to make a stand before the year is out so when real trading resumes in the New Year, bulls will have something to work with. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) remains stuck below $250, and today's 'black' candlestick is not one to suggest bulls will have it easy tomorrow. A weak 'sell' trigger in the MACD doesn't help, but in itself is not too damaging.
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Loses Undercut Russell 2000 Breakout, But No Real Damage Done

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It was coming, but only because markets have performed strongly since November lows. We have seen breakouts in the Russell 2000 ($IWM) and equal-weighted S&P, but both have drifted below their breakout levels. It wouldn't take much to recover these loses, but buyers still have some heavy lifting to do. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) closed with an indecisive doji after two days of selling, but I would consider an indecisive doji at breakout support more bullish. Technicals are nest positive, but On-Balance-Volume is close to a 'sell' trigger. However, the index is enjoying relative outperformance.
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