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Potential 'Bull Trap' in Russell 2000

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Markets experienced another round of profit taking but there was only one market showing a potential top. Yesterday, the Russell 2000 edged a breakout but today sellers put this in jeopardy with a potential 'bull trap'. The 'bull trap' in the Russell 2000 will be negated on a move above 1,433. Further losses will drop the index back inside the prior consolidation, but 'bull traps' often lead to moves to the other side of the consolidation - in this case, a break below 1,340.

Small Caps Inch Higher

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After Friday's selloff, it was left to bulls to try and paint over the cracks. The Russell 2000 returned to its breakout with a small gain over 1,420. The spike high is still influential, but the move into the spike high weakens the significance of this typically bearish candlestick. Also, note the sharp rise in relative market performance against the Nasdaq.

A Bear Market for S&P could only touch 2016 lows

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The 'most hated' rally, started in 2009, suffered a potential setback with wide range (neutral) candlesticks across markets. How much the UK election result played on this remains to be seen but Friday's trading marked a day of chaos.  Shorts should not be jumping so much for joy. The rally for the past few months has taken indices to a point where a 25% loss - a definition for a bear market - would only see tests of February's lows in 2016 (and nowhere near a test of 2009 lows or anything later). The S&P experienced higher volume distribution as the day closed with a 'spinning top'. Next week will be about consolidating the action in the context of Friday's close and holding the breakout. Technicals remain positive

(Pre-) Breakout in Russell 2000

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There wasn't much to attract interest but the Russell 2000 managed to stick its head above the parapet with a solid gain.  The Russell 2000 was left just shy of challenging trading range resistance.  Other indices are trading in a tight range which builds tension for a reactionary move; given what's happened in Small Caps, a breakout higher is perhaps favored. The Russell 2000 cleared inner resistance of the 'bear trap' and brought the index to trading range resistance. Tomorrow, watch for a consolidation at 1,420 before the Russell 2000 pushes higher.

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