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Further Selling, But More Likely

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The S&P took another beating as it undercut its 50-day MA. The day finished with confirmed distribution without any clear late day surge by bulls. Tomorrow could offer more of the same, although there is the benefit of Fib retracements on which buyers can lean on.

S&P Breakout Support Cleanly Cut

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There wasn't much for bulls to work with by the time markets closed Friday. I was somewhat surprised to see the S&P give up 2,009 breakout support without too much of a struggle. It finished at its 50-day MA which is also near psychological support of 2,000. Volume also climbed in confirmed distribution. Monday offers another chance for a bounce, but there is growing supply overhead which has the potential to kill any sustained Santa Rally.

Late Selling Puts Pressure on Friday

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Thursday saw another attempt by bulls to make up the losses of the previous day, but bears didn't wait until the next day to attack. Instead, an afternoon assault pushed markets back towards their lows, setting up a situation for further losses today (Friday). Volume was light, and there is plenty of support nearby to work, but it doesn't look good if you want to be a buyer for the longer term.  If that's your goal, refer to my table below to identify market conditions best suited to do this. As for markets, the S&P inverse hammer looks ugly. A test of 2,009 today or Monday doesn't look unreasonable.

Yesterday's Recovery Wiped

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It looked a weak recovery, and today's action quickly exposed the nature of yesterday's buying. Volume was modest, as holiday trading continues to be a theme. Window dressing into end-of-year remains a bullish overhang, but there is no guarantee Santa will keep on delivering gifts. For the S&P, look to Fib retracements and 2,009 breakout support. Buyers may attempt another run at the index then.

Late Recovery Comforts Bulls

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Not sure what to make of today. The recovery didn't look like one based on merit and will be vulnerable to early morning weakness. The Russell 2000 went from trading range support to resistance as it finished with a bullish engulfing pattern. The strength of the pattern is weakened by the lack of oversold conditions. However, price action will always be dominant. A poor start will increase the probability for a retest of today's low.

Broad Selling

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Bears paid an early visit to Santa with a broad selling. The relative loss was minor, although volume climbed to register confirmed distribution. The Nasdaq delivered on the 'bear flag' breakdown, which will give shorts something to work with.  The index finished on its 20-day MA. but this hasn't played as support in recent months.

Honors Even - Indices Little Changed

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Not a whole lot to add to Friday's action. The only index to make ground was the Russell 2000: it's working toward a challenge of the November peak as part of a double bottom at 1,155.

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