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Weekly Market Commentary: Buying in the Face of Greek Elections

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With Greek Elections too close to call it was surprising to see markets close on a high. Market breadth showed also demonstrated strong gains in support of the market. The Nasdaq Summation Index firmed up a swing low with stochastics deeply oversold and the MACD histogram climbing off a low. It was a similar story for the NYSE Summation Index The Bullish Percents were not so frothy, but there were still gains to be had.  The biggest strike against them is the neutral mid-position of stochastics. The Nasdaq finished the week at 2,872 which is close enough to the swing high from early 2011. Will this mark a right-hand-shoulder of a larger bearish pattern? Bulls hold the advantage and a higher weekly close (Friday) would negate this. The S&P also sits at an important juncture.  It closed on former channel support - turned resistance.  It has yet to challenge the early 2011 swing high, so channel resistance is the work-for-the-week. The Russell 2000 had a qu

Daily Market Commentary: Bulls Push for an Advantage

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It was a good day for bulls with a higher volume accumulation day logged. The buying favored Large Cap indices over Small Caps or Tech and it may be the job of the S&P to lead this rally out. The S&P is fast approaching channel resistance with 'buy' triggers for the MACD, On-Balance-Volume and Directional Movement Index. The swing low of 1,306 is a place for a stop. The Russell 2000 crept above the 200-day MA, but isn't close to breaking out of the consolidation in play since May. However, relative strength is attempting a second swing in favor of Small Caps over Tech. The Tech Index that had been doing the most running - at least for the first part of 2012 - has broken from its channel. Nasdaq 100 technicals have lost a little of their mojo but there is still a clear MACD 'buy' in place. For the past week it has been a sequence of up-down-up-down... A consecutive up day would do much to inspire sideline money to participate.  Traders will p

Daily Market Commentary: Coiling

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An afternoon sell off took the gloss on what had been a decent holding pattern for bulls.  The selling wasn't enough to undercut yesterday's low. This tightening of price action typically unwinds into a strong move; the direction of the move will be decided by the break of the high/low at the apex of the coil - which for now is Thursday's high/low. Selling volume was relatively light which further suggests a consolidation. The S&P is holding its 20-day MA with technicals improving. Buyers will want the May reaction high to break if they are to go long with confidence. The Nasdaq made another run to channel resistance before reversing; it too is holding its 20-day MA. While it does it offers bulls a long side opportunity with a stop on a break of the 20-day MA. The Russell 2000 is in the most trouble. The selling left it stuck below its 200-day MA and looking to the June swing low as next support. However, technicals continue to improve despite the selling.

Daily Market Commentary: Low Volume Recovery

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Yesterday's decline was undone by a fresh round of low volume buying. Large Caps were again the main beneficiaries but all indices posted gains. The Russell 2000 started the day below its 200-day MA but managed to do enough to close above this key long term moving average.  Today's low is a good place for a stop if looking at a longer term buy-play.  There was a resistance breakout in the MACD trigger line. The Nasdaq is setting itself up for a channel breakout with the MACD trigger 'buy' and a pending On-Balance-Volume 'buy'. The S&P managed to recover the most ground to Monday's losses.  The 20-day MA held as support with the next upside target the 50-day MA. For Wednesday, look to Large Caps to press their gains and drag Tech indices and Small Caps along for the ride. --- Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com . I offer a range of stock trading strategie

Daily Market Commentary: False Hope

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There weren't many prepared to drink the European Kool-Aid on an agreed Spanish bailout and bears found little resistance when they started to push.  One consolation for bulls was the relatively light volume to accompany the big intraday (bearish) swing - although technically it came in as a distribution day. Hardest hit of the indices was the Russell 2000. The selling went from the former neckline to below its 200-day MA - almost a 4% intraday swing.  Technicals are holding on to the bullish side although the index has struggled to outpace the Nasdaq. In contrast, the S&P lost just over a percent to leave the index on its 20-day MA. While the index closed at the day's low it didn't suffer the same intraday swing as the Russell 2000. Nasdaq selling was initiated at channel resistance, but closed with a bearish engulfing pattern. Bulls still have a MACD trigger 'buy' to work with in addition to improving On-Balance-Volume and Directional Movement Inde

Good vs Evil - Which Side will you Choose? $TFM $RAI

My latest Motley Fool post covers Reynolds America ($RAI) and The Fresh Market (TFM); you can read it here . Other stocks of interest covered in previous articles: $P, $DSW, $PPC , $DRI, $GHDX , $GMRN, $ELRC, $MGRC , $MELI , $AKAM, $NTES , $GOLD, $PAAS , $ADP, $PAYX, $TXN , $CHK, $TSO , $POT, $FCX, $APL I own shares in $APL and $FCX.

Daily Market Commentary: Early Burn Out

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It didn't take long for bulls to lose their mojo.  The morning gap wasn't sustainable and sellers were able to take the initiative with a secondary sell off into the close. The S&P closed just below yesterday's close but there was enough to see a MACD trigger 'buy' in support of the earlier On-Balance-Volume 'buy'.  Relative strength also attempted a swing back to Large Caps from Small Caps. With last Friday's selloff negated by yesterday's buying, how much of it will be negated tomorrow? The expectation will be for some downside, but today's selling was lighter than yesterday's buying so it may be a relatively minor loss to look forward too. The Nasdaq lost a little more ground than the S&P but it wasn't enough to negate the MACD trigger 'buy'. And it's close enough to the 20-day MA to suggest there is still support at this moving average. The Russell 2000 had an interesting day, cutting through 764 suppor

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