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Daily Market Commentary: Supply Overhead

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For the first time, bulls encountered some of the supply issues they will likely face in the days ahead. The initial morning advance gave way to selling, selling which intensified after bulls attempted a late afternoon rally. Tomorrow could be ugly. The S&P finished the day with a 'Shooting Star', but also enjoyed a 'Golden Cross' between 50-day and 200-day MAs. Volume climbed to register an accumulation day - although churning would be a better description of the days trading volume. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq also closed with a 'Shooting Star' down at support of its narrow channel. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com The Russell 2000 closed with a 'Golden Cross' and a 'Shooting Star' ($RUT) via StockCharts.com The only index to buck the trend was the semiconductor index. It was able to put my ground between itself and its 200-day MA. ($SOX) via StockCharts.com Of breadth indicators, the Nasdaq Summation Index followed

Weekly Market Commentary: Markets Keep Rising

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Small gains for the market kept markets ticking higher, but breadth indicators are showing a tiring market rally. Stochastics for the S&P are not yet overbought and with the MACD trending higher it's not yet signaling a top. I still like a test of 1,222 before November Election results are declared. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Percentage of S&P Stocks above the 50-day MA has defended 93% resistance; will the result be a modest loss like the summer of 2009, or a larger loss like the spring of 2010? ($SPXA50R) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq is on course to test 2,535 as rising volume declines. Like the S&P it's not yet overbought. Nasdaq : " via StockCharts.com The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA stretched to 76% before it reversed. It closed the week at 74%, but should this week's losses extend for another couple of weeks it could get ugly for the Nasdaq. A reason to take profits on gains if nothing else. AAAA Nasdaq Perce

Daily Market Commentary: Wide Range Day

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In the end it was a day which was difficult to pin down. The S&P and Nasdaq finished with black 'spinning top' candlesticks - potentially bearish, but there was no break of support. The S&P is very close to a 'Golden Cross' which would firm up bullish support. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com But the Nasdaq was able to go one better on a day of higher volume accumulation; is this a buying opportunity? ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com Small Caps took the worst of the selling, although the technical picture looks weaker than the current price situation. ($RUT) via StockCharts.com But really, it's all about breadth, and other than the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA (which has topped), other breadth indicators support a continuation of the rally. ($NASI) via StockCharts.com Friday could see the market push back (higher) but as each day passes the narrow trading range which is developing could turn into a significant supply zone should markets sna

Daily Market Commentary: Buying Support?

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Today's action was an effective switch on yesterday's selling except for yesterday's big gap down which remained in play. The S&P recovered from a potential bull trap to bring it back inside its narrow rising channel. However, the MACD didn't recover from its 'Sell' trigger. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq is also hugging channel support and is about to 'Golden Cross' its 50-day MA to 200-day MA. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com The Russell 2000 closed higher, but left with a MACD trigger 'sell'. ($RUT) via StockCharts.com The semiconductor index sits at converged 20-day and 200-day MAs and has so far resisted an easy opportunity to push down to the 50-day MA. But this index has to get itself into gear if the broader rally is going to continue so an index like the Nasdaq 100 can challenge 2007 (pre-credit crunch) highs. ($SOX) via StockCharts.com Market Breadth is pushing towards a market top. Technicals in the Percentage o

Daily Market Commentary: Narrow Channels Breakdown

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Today's trading was the first real selloff since the end of September. There was some significant technical moves in the market too. The S&P broke the narrow rising channel and left behind a potential bull trap with respect to the broader (and slower) rising channel. Volume climbed to register a distribution day. If the Bull Trap plays as true (i.e. there is no push above 1,185 by the start of next week) then the chances of a rapid move back to lower support of the broad rising channel, currently around 1,070, is very high. The upcoming 'Golden Cross' between 50-day and 200-day MA is the best long-term development (and hope) for bulls. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 are hanging on to narrow channel support. The closing 'spinning top' candlestick at support marks the yet-to-be-decided battle between bulls and bears. Volume climbed to register a distribution day. Bulls have very little room for maneuver, but if bulls are to step up, Wed

Daily Market Commentary: Bulls Start The Week Positively

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Markets continued to trade inside their narrowly defined rising channels. Only the semiconductor index disappointed with a lower close - but one which held its 200-day MA. ($SOX) via StockCharts.com The S&P closed near the day's high, breaking two days of quiet trading. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Russell 2000 is trading in the middle of its rising channel, but relative strength has shifted away from small caps towards tech (more bearish). ($RUT) via StockCharts.com Although Tech is getting a little stretched with a potential shooting star for the Nasdaq 100. ($NDX) via StockCharts.com September's consolidation may be the buffer for a measured move in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 (and S&P to a lesser degree). This could see the S&P touch 1,250 and the Nasdaq get to 2,585. Bulls maintain control of the market. Follow Me on Twitter Build a Trading Strategy Business in Zignals Subscribe to one of 58 trading strategies covering US, UK, Canada, F

Weekly Market Commentary: Pulling Away From Summer Consolidations

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It was a good week for indices with across the board gains. Markets remain on course to test long standing resistance levels. The S&P pushed higher on heavy volume accumulation. The 1,222 level is looking an attractive upside target for this advance. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq lacked the volume but added nearly 3% on the week. Nasdaq via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq 100 went one better; adding 3.5% and breaking through resistance. This index is closest to regaining back all of the banking-housing crisis losses. ($NDX) via StockCharts.com The only disappointment on the week was the rather tepid gain in the Russell 2000. It is still some way from challenging 2010 highs, let alone highs of 2007. ($RUT) via StockCharts.com On the warning sign front, the Percentage of S&P Stocks above the 50-day MA touched 93% - the highest it had managed in the past before it reversed. In terms of likely market response; the 2009 '93' changed very little and the S

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