Indices are all doing what good indices should in a bull market, but Bitcoin has taken a sharp move down following the rejection at the 200-day MA (and subsequent break of the 50-day MA). As to which side of the coin wins out remains to be seen, but given cryptos relationship to the tech sector it's hard to see how each could continue in their respective directions without at some point aligning.

Last week, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) staged a new breakout beyond $287 and then preceeded to trade in a narrow range on low volume. Expectation is for this to continue higher, but a loss of $287 would open up the potential for a 'bull trap' and set things for a move to $270. Technicals are net positive, but the MACD is shaping a bearish divergence.

The Nasdaq reached yet another measured move target as the scale of gains becomes tighter. There is a MACD trigger 'sell' to work off, but other technicals are positive - on-balance-volume in particular. As of today's close, it's 16.5% above its 200-day MA, which keeps it in the 15% zone of historic price extremes, but not enough to be rushing to the exits.

The S&P hasn't quite reached its measured move target, but remains on course to do so. The MACD is showing a weak 'sell' trigger, but is likely to return as a 'buy' signal by the end of the week. I wouldn't take too much negativity from the extended underperformance against the Nasdaq, as bullish momentum has barely dropped outside 95(%) since the start of April.

The equal-weighted S&P is climbing higher after it managed to clear April highs. It's about to see a relative shift in its favor vs the weighted S&P as money rotates into other S&P stocks.

Meanwhile the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 is making its move towards its measured move target, but it also finished the day on one of the more reliable candlestick patterns, the bearish harami cross - a reversal candlestick; a gap down tomorrow would confirm

Semiconductors gained over 5%(!!) today. The gains in this index look ridiculous, and even if we consider where the next sell off could go, fib retracements suggest we could fall some way before congestion zones of support appear.

The fly in the ointment is Bitcoin. As other indices look to outdo each other (with gains), Bitcoin is falling through the floor. The real challenge will come in the weekly chart when it goes to test its 200-week MA, but it's hard to reconcile what's happening in the cryptocurrency on the daily timeframe relative to other indices.

Bitcoin is in a long term decline. I had thought the February capitulation would mark something worthwhile, but this proved not to be the case as it failed to get past its 200-day MA. These doubts will eventually seep to the indices, with the Semiconductors likely to be the first to suffer as weak-hands (buying over the last couple of weeks) get shaken out of their positions. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is the safe haven that should benefit from any rotation out of Large Cap tech stocks, but if the next round of selling hits all indices equally, then the Russell 2000 will struggle to hold on, but will be the first to recover. When the next decline comes is anyone's guess, but it's likely close.

My next update will be week of June 15th. Will we see a decline by then?

Follow Me on Twitter

Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.