Popular posts from this blog

Upcoming "Death Cross" for Russell 2000 ($IWM)

Image
There was some modest buying today from the open, but volume was light and markets are below trading range support established during the latter part of 2024. It's hard to see where the buyers are going to come from given the chaos of Trump. I should add, I listened to Josh Brown's The Compound podcast and he showed an interesting chart of market returns in April-May in the year following a strong return in markets; in essence, selling to pay capital gains tax. Given the precarious nature of markets, and the possibility for this seasonal factor to play out, it's likely we have a couple more months of downward action before value buyers return. If we look at individual markets, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is looking like the first to signal a long term shift in favor of bears with an upcoming "Death Cross" between the 50-day MA and 200-day MA - perhaps completing before the end of the week. Technicals are net bearish and the volume trend has collapsed since the st...
Read more

Markets Price In War Escalation

There is one thing a chaotic Trump can't control and that's the market, and the market is not pricing for good news any time soon. What good news there is, is that this decline is likely to lead to a good buying opportunity, similar to one last seen in April 2025 (as per the tables visible at the end of every post; if you just follow these signals you would be catching most of the major lows). We are only at the start of such a decline, but it's one I will be tracking.

The strongest index is the Russell 2000 ($IWM). It only just undercut its 200-day MA, and may yet defend this moving average, but it has a tough fight ahead of it. Technicals are net negative, but it's outperforming the Nasdaq, and posted a distribution day yesterday. If this does manage to recover it will set up a bounce opportunity and will be one of the few buying opportunities, but to do so, it has to close above its 200-day MA, ideally on a bullish hammer or similar reversal candlestick.

The S&P failed in its attempt to recover its 200-day MA and is paying the price now. Technicals are net negative but it's still managing to outperform the Nasdaq... I have marked in a measured move target lower for the index, which puts it in around 6,100, that's also an 8% loss from its 200-day MA - not enough for a strong 'buy' signal, but the index would be trading in an accumulation zone.

Speaking of measured move targets, the Nasdaq is close to hitting its measured move target down around 20K, or 10% below its 200-day MA, also an accumulation zone. What's also likely to happen soon is a 'death cross' between its 50-day MA and 200-day MA.

Speaking of the Nasdaq and S&P, if you look at measured move targets you see a convergence with 2024 highs, a good chance we will see a support test, and perhaps a buying opportunity.

And such a test is playing out in the Dow Industrial Average now - time to buy?

Bitcoin wasn't able to deliver on its last 'buy' signal, but it's offering another one now on today's higher volume accumulation.

On the flip side, Semiconductors took a big hit and having reached its measured move target upside, it now will be looking for a test of 6,400 support.

Despite the bearishness outgoing bearishness in lead indices, we do have buying opportunities in Bitcoin, Russell 2000, and the Dow Industrial Average. There is a high chance of failure, but big opportunities come with big risk.

---

Follow Me on Twitter


Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.

Popular posts from this blog

Upcoming "Death Cross" for Russell 2000 ($IWM)

Image
There was some modest buying today from the open, but volume was light and markets are below trading range support established during the latter part of 2024. It's hard to see where the buyers are going to come from given the chaos of Trump. I should add, I listened to Josh Brown's The Compound podcast and he showed an interesting chart of market returns in April-May in the year following a strong return in markets; in essence, selling to pay capital gains tax. Given the precarious nature of markets, and the possibility for this seasonal factor to play out, it's likely we have a couple more months of downward action before value buyers return. If we look at individual markets, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is looking like the first to signal a long term shift in favor of bears with an upcoming "Death Cross" between the 50-day MA and 200-day MA - perhaps completing before the end of the week. Technicals are net bearish and the volume trend has collapsed since the st...
Read more

"Bull Traps" For S&P, Nasdaq and Bitcoin

Image
So, in one fell swoop, the S&P and Nasdaq undid all of the work of 2026 with nasty gaps lower. In the case of the Nasdaq, the ascending triangle breakout reversed into a breakdown with new 'sell' triggers in the MACD, On-Balance-Volume and +DI/-DI. The relative performance of the index to the Russell 2000 ($IWM) showed an acceleration lower after last year's declines. Only stochastics (momentum) is holding on. If one was to be more honest of what's happening, we are likely broadening out to a trading range and it will take a loss of 22K to really flag a concern for bulls. Things are a little more problematic for the S&P. There is a definite 'bull trap' in play following today's significant gap down. Volume rose in confirmed distribution, so this wasn't some fake out to get weak hands out of their positions. As with the Nasdaq, the twin lows of October/November at 6,550 carries greater significance, and we are still a long way from a test...
Read more

Markets Rally But "Bull Traps" Hold For S&P and Bitcoin

Image
Markets were able to stage a recovery after Tuesday's losses, but the recovery - while newsworthy - didn't do enough to make back all of those losses, and critically, there is still a key "bull trap" in the S&P. Technicals are still mixed for this index, with momentum (stochastics) failing to return to an overbought condition, a condition required to sustain a rally.
Read more

Archive

Show more