AAII Survey Diverges to S&P

There wasn't a whole lot of change to indices, so today we will look at some of the other charts. One of the more interesting is the AAII Bullish/Bearish Sentiment Index. Earlier this year, we had the tariff sell off that killed investor sentiment, but what followed is the rally investors are still enjoying the benefits from today. If there is a concern, it's that investor sentiment is growing more bearish, in a manner similar to what we saw at the start of 2022. The chief difference is that in 2022, the S&P sold off for the rest of the year, but this year, markets have continued their advance; will things turn sour quickly?

The Semiconductor Index broke out last week and added a little kicker today. It's a subtle gain, but technicals are net positive and the index is well placed for further gains (trade $SMH).

We can see the benefit of the daily timeframe break on the weekly Semiconductor chart.

Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) enjoyed a modest accumulation day. We have now seen three accumulation days since the last distribution day. This helped generate the new 'buy' trigger in On-Balance-Volume, but not enough to turn technicals net positive as stochastics remain below 50.

The Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI) is offering a pullback 'buy' opportunity having eased off an overbought state. This is a signal for the Nasdaq, but likely will work for Bitcoin and the Semiconductor Index.

For tomorrow, at worst, we have a "hold" for indices but a likely continuation of the gains we have seen so far. Hard to understand given the political environment, but markets do what markets do.

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Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.

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