Indices Pocket Small Losses

The Russell 2000 ($IWM) holds its breakout advance with a small loss on confirmed distribution. Technials are net positive as relative performance continues its push higher.

The loss in the S&P tagged breakout support, but managed to eat back some of those losses before the close. Volume was down on the previous day, so no technical distribution. The index is still awaiting a new MACD 'buy'.

The Nasdaq lost just over 1%, and finished the week on breakout support. Like the S&P, it has a MACD trigger 'sell' still to work off as other technicals remain bullish. When trading resumes next week, buyers will need to step up quick if this action isn't to revert to a trading range.

Next week is also a big week for Bitcoin ($BTCUSD). There may be an aggressive 'buy' here as it sits on support, but an undercut of $107K is likely to lead to a test of the 200-day MA. Technicals are strongly bearish and oversold.

While the Russell 2000 ($IWM) has already banked its breakout day, we still wait for a similar move for the S&P and Nasdaq. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ($BTCUSD), while trading at support, looks more likely to test its 200-day MA.

---

Follow Me on Twitter


Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.

Popular posts from this blog

Upcoming "Death Cross" for Russell 2000 ($IWM)

Image
There was some modest buying today from the open, but volume was light and markets are below trading range support established during the latter part of 2024. It's hard to see where the buyers are going to come from given the chaos of Trump. I should add, I listened to Josh Brown's The Compound podcast and he showed an interesting chart of market returns in April-May in the year following a strong return in markets; in essence, selling to pay capital gains tax. Given the precarious nature of markets, and the possibility for this seasonal factor to play out, it's likely we have a couple more months of downward action before value buyers return. If we look at individual markets, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is looking like the first to signal a long term shift in favor of bears with an upcoming "Death Cross" between the 50-day MA and 200-day MA - perhaps completing before the end of the week. Technicals are net bearish and the volume trend has collapsed since the st...
Read more

"Dead Cat" Bounce or Something Better?

Image
It's still a little too early to say, but the bounce is in play and "long" is the place to be. There is a huge amount of overhead resistance and the risk:reward remains tight with moves back to Thursday's lows well within expectations. For the S&P, I would be looking for a rally back to test the 200-day MA, or a fast-falling 20-day MA, whichever is the lowest. Real supply won't kick in until 5,700 is tested, and maybe it will have the juice to get to 5,775 before volume selling makes its presence felt. As the index makes this move I expect to see a decent On-Balance-Volume 'buy' signal, alongside what will be a weak MACD 'buy'; other technicals are likely to remain bearish.
Read more

Archive

Show more