Bearish Engulfing patterns undermine attempts to break 'bull traps'
The 'bull traps' in the indies were on course to be negated by Friday's early surge, but by the close of business these potential follow on breakouts had morphed into more damaging bearish engulfing patterns. The good news is that breakout support levels remain intact, although a test of such supports should be seen as a minimum for Monday.
In the case of the Russell 2000 ($IWM), Friday's selling also ranked as distribution. The index still benefits from net bullish technicals and is outperforming peer indices.
The Nasdaq bearish engulfing pattern has come with a 'sell' trigger in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume on the verge of one. The index is underperforming both the S&P and Russell 2000 ($IWM) and registered confirmed distribution. Despite this weakness, breakout support remains intact.
The S&P is also above breakout support. Selling volume was not as great as for the Nasdaq and Russell 2000, but it did edge enough to be considered distribution. The MACD remains on a 'sell' trigger although of the three indices it has best technicals outside of the MACD.
Heading into Monday we have breakout support to consider across the lead indices. The likelihood of a loss of support is quite high and while this may seem damaging in the long term there is still plenty of support to lean on should sellers grab control. The first such support will come with 20-day MAs, and further selling on Monday could see this moving average tested for each index. If that proves to be the case, intraday violations are okay, but bulls will want to see an end-of-day close above the moving average to maintain current November-March rallies.
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