Russell 2000 ($IWM) ready to shape right-hand-side of base

Another solid day on Friday for indices with the Russell 2000 ($IWM) building up some nice momentum, but other indices did not disappoint.

The Russell 2000 ($IWM) added over 1% as it reached resistance of the January swing high. Volume climbed to register a second day of accumulation in a row, increasing the probability of a breakout. Technicals returned net bullish with new 'buy' triggers in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume. This technical improvement coincided with a bounce from the intermediate stochastic midline, a typical bounce point in a cyclical bull market. While Monday may not deliver another gain, I would be looking for an end-of-day close near resistance.

Both the Nasdaq and S&P had finished Thursday with narrow range doji that at this stage of an advance frequently mark a top but this was not the case by close of business Friday as both indices were able to post gains. The Nasdaq currently sits 15.7% above its 200-day MA, that puts it above the 85% of historic price action for this index dating back to 1971, increasing the probability that a major top is not far away. We may be looking at a double top for this index, even if the index has just edged itself beyond the last peak in a potential bull market breakout. If this proves to be the case, then it will register as a 'bull trap'.

The S&P is 12.6% above its 200-day MA, that's in the 90% zone of historic extreme price action dating back to 1950. This index has already surpassed the point where it could mark a double top, so if there is a top here then I would be looking for a sequence of higher highs and higher lows in a pullback to the low 4000s. Whereas I was of the opinion the break of 4,766 marked an end of the bear market and would not undercut this level, this is looking less likely given the degree of extension beyond the 200-day MA.

While indices are approaching a level of heat associated with market tops, we are still seeing good strength in the semiconductor index, an index that can continue to drive the broader rally in the S&P and Nasdaq.

For the coming week, we want to see how selling - when it comes - impacts on the new bull market breakouts, and whether these support levels can hold *should* sellers make a mark next week. Otherwise, we are going to keep drifting upwards.

---

Follow Me on Twitter


Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.

Popular posts from this blog

Round 2 for the bearish "black" candlestick in S&P and Nasdaq

Image
The Nasdaq started brightly but ended up closing below its open price, but above yesterday's close. The S&P did something similar, although the intraday range is narrower. These two setups are somewhat complicated by the new 'buy' triggers in On-Balance-Volume for both the Nasdaq and S&P. And the new MACD trigger 'buy' for the S&P. Price action is key, so I would expect the candlestick to trump the technical picture; watch for lower prices tomorrow.
Read more

Being "Right" but still losing...

Image
I'm trying the Topstep Trader Combine as a sampler to day trading and it's an interesting setup with minimal outlay costs to get started. I'm not a huge fan of their platform UI but everything else has been pretty good so far. Today was one of those days where I waiting (and waiting) for the profit taking to kick in, but by the time sellers made their appearance I had reached my loss limit for the day and so that, was that. You can see all of my whipsaw trades here. For the record, I only work off price action, looking at support/resistance and tells like rapid stop take outs, usually a good sign for a reversal.
Read more

Russell 2000 reverses off resistance

Image
The Russell 2000 ($IWM) has shaped a four month cup-and-handle pattern, but Friday's challenge of handle resistance was not enough to generate the follow through needed to continue the rally. Despite the losses, On-Balance-Volume remains on a 'buy' trigger and the MACD has the potential to offer a 'buy' trigger of its own on the next gain. However, losses did reverse relative performance away from Small Caps to the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq banked a small gain Friday on trading volume which was lighter than normal. While price action gathered little attention, there was a return to net bullish technicals with a new MACD trigger 'buy' to go alongside the earlier 'buy' signal in On-Balance-Volume. Thursday's bearish black candlestick was not good to see, but Friday didn't deliver the losses such a candlestick can deliver. I have added a support trendline that will offer itself as an additional buy zone. Momentum is strongly bullish.
Read more

Archive

Show more