S&P breakout adds to the earlier breakout in Nasdaq

Friday was a sticky finish for markets, Monday managed to make back some of this lost ground, and today delivered a breakout in the S&P.

I had talked over the weekend about the risk of a crash, particularly in the Russell 2000, but today's action in the S&P goes some way to averting this scenario.  The Russell 2000 is still in trouble, but there is reason for optimism in the S&P.  The gap move above resistance came with a new 'buy' trigger in the MACD, although other technicals remain bearish.


The Nasdaq had already delivered a breakout, that it managed to hang on too despite Friday's selling. Today's action saw a small gap higher that knocked out last week's swing high.  Volume was a little disappointing for a follow through so Friday's distribution remains threatening.  Technicals remain net bullish, having resisted Friday's selling. 

The Russell 2000 had a quiet day.  If there is an index vulnerable to a crash it's this.  Today's buying came on an indecisive doji on modest volume - not a whole lot to get excited about.  The technical picture also remains on the bearish side, including a continued sharp underperformance relative to the Nasdaq. 

For this week, we will want to see both the S&P and Nasdaq build on their breakouts to distract from what is worrying weakness in the Russell 2000.  Last summer's low should be viewed as a significant market bottom, so even if there is an undercut it should only be temporary.

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Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.

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