Buyers build momentum towards resistance challenges

A positive Monday built on the buying of Friday, and today's potential to return those gains was repelled.  There was decent volume to the buying, and more modest volume to today's low key selling.  It's safe to say we have a swing low established from the end of December, and a workable rally - all part of a larger basing pattern kicked off from October. 

One index I haven't mentioned in a while, but posting strong gains over the last couple of days, is the Semiconductor Index.  In addition to clearing the bearish 'black' candlestick from December, it has also pushed beyond its 200-day MA with an acceleration in its outperformance against the Nasdaq 100. I view the latter relationship as the tech equivalent of the Dow Theory, and an outperformance for semiconductors is bullish for the broader tech sector. 


While semiconductors are making big strides, the Nasdaq hasn't yet mounted a challenge of its December 'black' candlestick that also represents resistance of the November-December trading range. It does, however, have the benefit of net bullish technicals and an outperformance relative to large caps, S&P. 


The S&P is also working towards December resistance, but has the added benefit of doing so from above its 200-day MA.  Technicals are net positive, but the index is underperforming relative to peer Tech and Small Cap indices.


The index to watch for tomorrow is the Russell 2000 ($IWM).  Its challenging consolidation resistance for a fourth time, and no one has ever heard of a quad-top, so I would be expecting a break past $188.70 in the coming days.


Looking at the state of the indices, it's hard to see where bears have an angle.  Should the Russell 2000 ($IWM) follow the Semicondcutor index with a breakout, then it would push towards the development of right-hand side bases - bases that began their development at the end of 2021. 

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Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.

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