Russell 2000 feels the heat
The Russell 2000 has been bucking the trend by enjoying a relative strength advantage over peer indices, but today was the first sign that there may be a shift away from growth stocks to more defensive large cap stocks in the near term - not the best timing given the proximity of support. Today's action generated a new 'sell' trigger in On-Balane-Volume and effectively confirmed a 'bull trap' of Tuesday's breakout.
The Russell 2000 loss is the S&P's gain as the latter index enjoyed a relative performance gain despite recording a loss today. Having said that, the S&P is in a bit of a no-mans land and even a couple more days of selling is unlikely to change that. I have marked the required breakout levels to watch for on the chart below.
The Nasdaq is also holding support but is closer to channel resistance than the S&P. The MACD is still on a 'buy' trigger, although other technicals remain firmly bearish. The index is underperforming relative to the S&P, although I suspect this will be the index which will benefit most from the rotation away from the Rusell 2000 and Nasdaq.
For tomorrow, we have the all important end-of-week candle to consider along with the standard day-to-day trading. Bulls need to keep a close eye on the Russell 2000 as today's action has set up the index for further losses tomorrow. If there was a preference, it would be for 'dragonfly' doji or bullish 'hammers' - with a solid, long tail spike to mark the bullish reversal of fortunes.
You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog.
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