Monday, April 25, 2022

Sellers accelerate move back to February/March Lows

A relatively torrid Thursday and Friday saw markets push towards the lows of February/March after failed attempts to shape a higher low.  Should we undercut these lows then we will have to consider the possibility for a larger measured move lower (anchored from the March high). 

If were were to consider the Nasdaq as a starting point, then the measured move down would give an approximate target of 10,900 or the swing low of August 2020 (at 10,520). There isn't a whole lot on the technical side which is positive and the fact intermediate stochastics [39,1] are not oversold suggests there is more downside to come. 


The S&P took a slightly bigger hit than the Nasdaq, but its losses coincide with a momentum indicator caught in the middle ground - and weakening - to the extent it could be another few weeks of declines before we see a bottom.

 


The Russell 2000 undercut its April low to bring it to the support level which has (so far) defined its trading range for 2022.  Any further loss from here will eat into the 'bear trap' and return to play the measured move target.  As with the Nasdaq and S&P, momentum is not yet oversold - which suggests the 'bear trap' will likley turn into another swing low in a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. 


The coming week will be an interesting time for markets as all are looking vulnerable to a larger move lower.  While this environment is unfriendly to long-sided traders, it's a great one for buy-and-hold investors; use weakness to build a new or add to an existing position. There is always value to be found in the market. 

You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog.

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Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.

 
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