Wednesday, March 02, 2022

Getting closer to a market bottom

The longer indices remain off their lows, the greater the probability those lows will become *the* low for the November-March decline. Again, focus should remain on the Russell 2000, which had suffered the largest relative loss over the course of 2021 but now finds itself in a leadership role in 2022 - despite the losses it experienced from November highs. 

The Russell 2000 made further gains today as it pushes towards a cluster of resistance between $208-211 ($IWM), which also includes the 50-day MA.  Get past that, with the help of a MACD and On-Balance-Volume trigger 'buy', then we are looking at the 200-day MA and the start of a new base pattern (with a neckline marked by the November high). 

The Nasdaq is up against declining resistance connecting the swing highs from December and mid-February. If this resistance breaks then it will be looking to challenge the 50-day MA (which is also near February's swing highs).  The index also has a MACD trigger 'buy' and one for On-Balance-Volume. 

The S&P  has the most work to do to reverse the trend. Today's gains were welcome but it won't be out of the woods until it gets back declining resistance defined by the November and December swing highs.

Markets are very resilient to world events - no matter how bad or how sad. Price action will always dominate the headlines, and what we are seeing has more in common with a a significant swing low in markets than the start of market meltdown. Things can of course change - but with the information available to use now, that is my opinion of the situation.

You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog.

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