Monday, February 28, 2022

Support Holds Despite Weekend Futures

After posting yesterday - then seeing the state of Futures Sunday evening - I thought I was going to be left with egg on my face, but support was well defined on Friday and today's action effectively confirmed these levels as working support.  Of course, we can still go lower from here, but given the economic state of Russia and the war in the Ukraine, today's action was very tepid. 

The Nasdaq is about to run into its first piece of price resistance at the 20-day MA, but it does have a 'buy' trigger in its relative performance to the S&P, not to mention a (weak) 'buy' signal in the MACD. 

The S&P similarly confirmed its support level responsible for the 'bear trap'.  The index closed lower, but it doesn't have the early 'buy' triggers of the MACD or relative performance against peer indices to suggest it can lead out a rally.  However, it can still defend what it has. 


The Russell 2000 continues to shape a double bottom with January/February swing lows, but the neckline needs to be breached.  It does have the benefit of a relative performance advantage over the S&P and Nasdaq, along with 'buy' triggers in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume. Also, the closer it comes to confirming the double bottom, the sooner it will negate the measured move target around $169. 
 

Remember, the news will always be bad when markets are down. So it's not a guarantee every bit of bad news will result in a market sell off.  Markets are looking a little more resilient, and with a bit of luck, Ukraine will come out of this a member of the EU one day. 

You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog.

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Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.

 
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