Tuesday, February 22, 2022

A nervy balance for markets

After Friday's long weekend send off in favor of bears it was a bit of a consolation to see markets turn in a more neutral day.  Today didn't rescue bulls because markets opened with a gap down, but there was no follow through lower - which wasn't great, but didn't damage any support levels either. 

The Nasdaq closed on support (defined by candlestick real bodies), with a small spike low which challenged January lows. Technicals are net negative with the index moving further away (relatively) from both the S&P and Russell 2000. 

The S&P similarly finished on real body support, although it did register as higher volume distribution with technicals similarly troublesome. The index is trying to make back some relative ground against the Russell 2000, but it continues to underpeform against Small Cap stocks. 

The Russell 2000 experienced a similar day as the S&P and Nasdaq, it's chief difference was that the selling during the latter part of last week was not as bad as it was for the aforementioned indices. Despite this, it still has the most room to maneuver to support and is unlikely to be the first index to undercut January lows - should this happen in markets. It still clings on to its MACD trigger 'buy' and is outperforming both the S&P and Nasdaq.  For me, this is the index to 'buy'. 

For the coming week bulls will not want to see a 'real-body' close below today's finish - spike lows are tolerable, but a solid red bar will cause trouble for the Nasdaq and S&P.   The Russell 2000 should be okay, in as far as it won't be the headline grabber if selling continues. Whatever happens in markets, the broader action is healthy and gives value buyers and investors an opportunity to add to any existing (or new) positions they should so wish. 

You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog.

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Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.

 
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