A bottom for the Russell 2000?

War has begun and Covid is near an end; I can only assume traders are 'buying' the war as I would expect the Covid rally to be sold when the virus eventually peters out.  The Russell 2000 ($IWM) looks to offer the best value as the current leg down as suffered none of the heavy volume trading the initial leg down in January experienced.  Today's white candle reversal did register as accumulation for this index - another reason to be positive (unless you live in Ukraine).  Also, with today's low at $187.92 the index is well placed to map a double bottom with the January swing low (with supporting bullish divergences in the MACD and Stochastics).  Technicals are net negative, aside from continued relative gains against peer indices. 


It's a little trickier to judge the Nasdaq.  Yes, we have a big white candlestick which recovered much of the day's losses, but today's real body close just about recovered real body support from January's lows.  With the new MACD trigger 'sell' below the bullish zero line we are likely looking at a rally shorts will fade back to today's lows.  Bulls still have work to do to stabilize this return to support, so any loss from here - no matter how small - will be a concern. 

If the Nasdaq is borderline okay, the S&P still has tonne of work to do to get back to January's lows.  Today recovery with a close barely above yesterday's close is not bullish. Technicals are net bearish and the index is underperforming both the Nasdaq and Russell 2000.  The headline index has work to do although aggressive traders may look for some upside back to former real-body support / now resistance around 4,300.


What happens in Ukraine will inject a surge in volatility.  Without external assistance it's hard to see Ukraine doing anything more than offer a quick surrender, which would likely devolve into a low grade war to bog Russia down - an effective 1980s style Afghanistan II.  Markets will move on, unfortunately, it's going to be a long time before Ukranians get any normality back in their lives. 

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