Russell 2000 approaches December low

If we are going to see buyers step in to defend the December swing low for the Russell 2000, then they will need to start buying now. Today delivered the fourth day of selling in a row and only the drop in selling volume offers a suggestion the desire to sell may be on the wane.  Technicals for the index remain net negative and relative performance hasn't improved much since the December low was defined.  A continuation of the measured move lower remains the preferred outcome here. 

The Nasdaq similarly has a measured move target to aim for - and that target corresponds to the 200-day MA, so there is a good chance we will see this tested over the coming weeks.  Stochastics have returned below the bullish mid-line - effectively confirming a bear market, while relative performance (to the S&P) is falling off a cliff. 

The S&P made more of a rollover move today but has some way to go before testing the December swing low - which would amount to the extent of the measured move; i.e. what we are looking at is a probable trading range.  Technicals are mostly positive, although with ADX on a 'bear' trigger and the MACD close to a 'sell' it won't take much to deliver a more bearish outlook. 

Commentary on breadth metrics can be found here. Measured moves lower remain the preferred play here, but confirmation is required. 

You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog.

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