Sunday, August 08, 2021

Dow Breakout as Russell 2000 stalls at 50-day MA

The Dow Jones Index clears resistance dating back to April, although the S&P has long since made it out of its base.  The move in the Dow came with a fresh 'buy' signal in the MACD and a solid accumulation trend in On-Balance-Volume.


The Nasdaq has been riding along its 20-day MA as it pushes into a squeeze off 15,000 resistance.  Thursday had looked like it was a concerted move higher, but it got pegged back Friday on higher volume distribution. 


Breadth metrics for the Nasdaq are heading lower, although this in itself has not always led to an immediate decline, it will eventually crack the market - bringing the capitulation and spike low.  However, this could be a year away, but given action in the Russell 2000 it's likely to be sooner. 


The Russell 2000 is range bound and is struggling to get past its 50-day MA.  It should be noted, as the index is range bound - a flat-lined 50-day MA isn't really a true resistance level, but the sequence of doji at this moving average suggests otherwise. Momentum is also stalling out at the 50 mid-line.  On a positive front, the MACD continues to improve, and On-Balance-Volume is on a 'buy' trigger. 


Following a week away, the net picture remains the same.  The Russell 2000 isn't leading the market and is a long way from doing so.  Tech averages are looking to regain their previous strength but they may struggle to maintain it if there isn't broader market participation. Large Caps are OK, if a little insipid. 

The Covid rally has been very strong across lead indices, but it's hard to see markets maintain this rate of ascent once the world emerges the other side of this pandemic. 

You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog.

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Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.

 
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