Sunday, January 03, 2021

New Year, Fresh Start

So, as we say goodbye to 2020 - and hello to 2021 - we have a new year to consider and hopefully one where Covid19 becomes a less of news item as the year progresses. But for now, Covid19 (and the consequences of Brexit for those in the UK), is all we have to work with.

The Nasdaq finished near its highs but did edge a 'sell' trigger in the MACD. Other technicals are net positive with the index improving in relative performance against the Russell 2000.

The S&P made one last flourish to close at a new high as On-Balance-Volume enjoyed a 'buy' trigger.  It also made inroads against the Russell 2000, but it didn't trigger a new 'buy'.


Speaking of the Russell 2000, it had started to crack before the year was out. Some higher volume distribution days came with 'sell' triggers for the MACD and On-Balance-Volume.  It's still very close to its highs, and the decline looks more of a pullback from end-of-year profit taking than any panic selling. However, we don't want to see any acceleration to the downside as traders return from their vacations. 


Not surprisingly, with trading volume light over the past week we won't know what the true intentions of traders will be until Monday rolls in. I wouldn't expect too much in the coming week but let's see. All indices ended the month in the 95% zone of historic price extremes relative to their 200-day MA; often a ripe ground for a swing high top. 

You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog.

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Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.

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