Wednesday, March 04, 2020

Bounce continues

Yesterday's return to selling had the look of a tiring bounce, but this was swiftly undone by today's buying. Market rallies are still in play with 20-day and 50-day MAs as overhead resistance.

The S&P rally is aiming towards converged 20-day and 50-day MAs, although buying volume is lighter than recent selling. Technicals are all net bearish, not surprisingly, so we will be looking for bullish divergences when traders eventually return to selling


The Nasdaq is still hanging on to its On-Balance-Volume 'buy's signal as the bounce approaches its converged 20-day and 50-day MAs. Momentum traders may wish to use the leverage of its strong relative market performance to see it reach the moving averages. While shorts are best waiting until the moving averages are tested before attacking.


Whatever nascent bullishness was lurking in the Russell 2000 has long since been washed away. The index is currently struggling to make it back to its 200-day MA and if this swings back into a test of support it could get very ugly for this index.


Semiconductors did not escape the carnage, although buyers were able to defend channel support. The weekly chart nicely shows the bounce and remains a point of optimism.


Tomorrow's action will be about feeding the rally. There is much overhead resistance to recover but markets are scrambling for some positive news. It seems unlikely that Coronavirus is going away anytime soon and the likelihood of a fresh wave of infections in August of this year from a mutated vius will keep market participants edgy. The bounce has the look of an exit plan for longs wanting out of long term positions - positions perhaps held as far back as the 2009 lows.  The good news is that the Coronavirus will offer deep discounts for investors who may have missed earlier opportunities to buy. Again, spread out the investment timeframe and there is a good chance your buys will cover the eventual swing low. 


You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog.

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Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.
 
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