Sunday, January 26, 2020

Small Caps Break Support

Not since September of last year have we seen a selling day like Friday's. Hardest hit of the indices was the Russell 2000 as it broke below support of its rising channel. It remains above breakout support of $158s, but with new 'sell' triggers for the MACD, On-Balance-Volume and ADX. Relative performance versus the Nasdaq has been in freefall since mid-December and Friday's action didn't help. However, the weekly chart is the one to watch if you are holding long, and with 20- and 50-week MAs running closely aligned there is support to work with.

Losses for the S&P weren't enough to break channel support, although the week did finish with a MACD trigger 'sell'. The index is outperforming the more speculative Russell 2000 and as long as this continues it will be the first port of call for money flowing into the market. Given the proximity of the 20-day MA it may be concluded that Friday's selling is a buying opportunity.

If your outlook is more in favour of bears then the Nasdaq might prove to be better trade. The index had been riding around channel resistance - but Friday' selling has dumped it firmly back inside this channel. As for other indices were was a MACD 'sell' to add to selling pressure, although relative performance was little impacted.

The Semiconductor Index began Friday trading above channel support before closing inside the channel. Unlike other indices, it holds a net bullish technical picture.

For tomorrow, it's a choice for shorts of working with the Nasdaq. Longs can try the S&P, but I suspect this downleg has more to run before buyers step in with any level of conviction. You can find some breadth charts here.

You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog.

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Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.